arXiv:2605.27580cs.AIq-bio.NC2026-05

人的行为结果可由实时心理状态干预精确控制,为个性化智能提供新思路。

You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention

  • 通过动态调整个体决策时的心理状态权重,实现对行为结果的可控干预。
  • 基于24个月、20万+用户的实证数据,验证状态变化与行为差异的因果关系。
  • 适用于数字健康、教育个性化及人工智能个人代理,推动人机协同决策。

行为科学与面向人类的人工智能面临一个核心难题:同一人在相同外部输入下表现出不一致的行为结果,且不同个体间的行为差异无法被可观测变量完全解释。本文认为这种变异性源于个体的动态潜在状态,并提出人类行为结果可通过干预其决策时刻的心理状态权重实现精确控制。状态定义为决策形成瞬间,影响个体生物、生理与神经心理处理事件的各维度加权向量,该向量在亚日级时间尺度上动态变化。意识报告通道是一个狭窄的注意力瓶颈,其内容本身依赖于状态。这些主张共同表明,特定事件的结果可在状态轨迹条件下被控制。研究基于因果推断、预测加工、稳态调节、注意力瓶颈、节律生物学和计算精神病学六大证据体系,并利用部署平台在2023至2026年间收集超过20万注册用户、涵盖四种职业角色的24个月观察数据。推导出七项可检验预测,列出六项状态感知系统运行要求,并探讨其在数字健康、教育、AI个性化及个体自主性方面的深远影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

心理状态因果干预个性化智能数字健康

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