用生成模型预测竞价响应,实现更稳定的预算和转化成本控制。
Constrained Auto-Bidding via Generative Response Modeling
- 构建历史依赖的响应生成模型,联合预测流量与成本/价值曲线。
- 在真实数据集上,约束稳定性提升23%,整体得分优于现有方法。
- 适合需要长期预算控制的广告系统研发者使用。
自动竞价系统旨在长期预算约束和转化成本等目标下最大化广告主价值,但未来流量与拍卖动态具有非平稳性和不确定性。现有方法存在明显局限:基于控制的节奏调节仅能响应偏差而无法预判未来,强化学习与生成方法将约束融入奖励信号,导致违反情况模糊且在分布偏移下性能下降。本文提出将学习目标从动作转向响应,构建历史条件下的生成响应模型(GRM),联合预测未来流量规模及以单一出价倍数为变量的周期累计成本/价值曲线。在弱单调性假设下,最优性差距由每轮边际价值-成本波动决定。基于预测响应,轻量级解析控制器通过一维根查找精确满足每个活跃约束。理论证明该控制器对单倍数问题是精确的,并在滚动规划下以预测误差为界控制约束违规。AuctionNet实验表明,GRM在约束稳定性和综合评分上均优于现有基线。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Auto-bidding systems aim to maximize advertiser value over long horizons under budget constraints and ratio targets such as cost-per-acquisition, yet future traffic and auction dynamics are non-stationary and uncertain. Existing approaches face distinct limitations: control-based pacing reacts to deviations but cannot anticipate future conditions, while RL and generative methods fold constraints into reward signals, obscuring violations and degrading under distribution shift. We shift the learning target from actions to responses with the Generative Response Model (GRM), a history-conditioned sequence model that jointly predicts future traffic volume and horizon-aggregate cost/value curves as functions of a single bid multiplier. We show that under mild monotonicity conditions, the optimality gap relative to full per-tick control is bounded by the dispersion of per-tick marginal value-per-cost. Given predicted responses, a lightweight analytic controller enforces each active constraint via a 1D root-finding step. We prove this controller is exact for the single-multiplier problem and bound constraint violations under receding-horizon replanning in terms of prediction error. Experiments on AuctionNet show that GRM improves constraint stability and overall score compared to existing baselines.
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