基于道路结构的交通视频预测模型,提升跨城市交通图准确性与一致性。
A Road-Conditioned Traffic Movie Prediction Network with Spatiotemporal and Structure-Consistent Learning

- 引入道路结构引导的时空建模,将预测视为拓扑约束下的未来状态生成。
- 在柏林、安特卫普等城市上,平均误差降低超10%,跨城市预测也表现稳健。
- 适合需要高精度、可迁移交通预测的智慧城市与导航系统应用。
城市级交通预测对缓解拥堵、路线引导和智能交通系统至关重要,但当需在整座城市路网中生成空间地图形式的未来交通时,准确预测仍具挑战性。现有交通视频预测方法虽提升了帧级精度,但多将其视为图像重建任务,导致预测结果虽数值接近真实值,却缺乏对道路布局、连通性、行驶方向及拥堵传播的约束,尤其在跨城市场景中更为明显。为此,本文提出RCSNet,一种道路条件驱动的时空网络,将交通视频预测重构为拓扑引导的未来状态生成。RCSNet从静态道路地图中提取道路感知表征,建模多时域交通动态,将方向性交通特征与局部道路结构对齐,并逐步生成未来交通图以增强时间一致性。引入结构一致学习目标,进一步确保预测结果在准确性、道路对齐性和空间稳定性上的表现。多个城市实验表明,RCSNet显著提升预测精度与结构一致性:在柏林、安特卫普、莫斯科的同城预测中,平均MAE、MSE、RMSE分别降低11.5%、10.0%、5.1%;在未见过的芝加哥与曼谷跨城市测试中,RMSE分别下降10.6%与10.5%,且无需目标城市微调。额外的时序分析、道路结构分析、可解释性评估、统计检验与效率测试均表明,RCSNet生成的交通预测更准确、可迁移、道路对齐且计算高效。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
City-wide traffic forecasting is important for congestion management, route guidance, and intelligent transportation systems, but accurate prediction remains challenging when future traffic must be generated as spatial maps over an entire urban network. Existing traffic movie prediction methods have improved frame-level accuracy, yet many still treat forecasting mainly as image reconstruction. This can produce traffic maps that are numerically close to the ground truth but weakly constrained by road layout, connectivity, travel direction, and congestion propagation, especially in cross-city settings where both traffic behavior and road structure change. To address this limitation, this study proposes RCSNet, a road-conditioned spatiotemporal network that reformulates traffic movie prediction as topology-guided future-state generation. RCSNet extracts road-aware representations from static road maps, models multi-horizon traffic dynamics from historical observations, aligns directional traffic features with local road structure, and progressively generates future traffic maps for improved temporal consistency. A structure-consistent learning objective further encourages predictions to remain accurate, road-aligned, and spatially stable. Experiments across multiple cities show that RCSNet improves both forecasting accuracy and structural consistency. In same-city forecasting on Berlin, Antwerp, and Moscow, RCSNet reduces average MAE, MSE, and RMSE by 11.5%, 10.0%, and 5.1%, respectively, compared with the closest baseline. In cross-city testing on unseen Chicago and Bangkok, it reduces RMSE by 10.6% and 10.5% without target-city fine-tuning. Additional horizon-wise, road-structure, explainability, statistical, and efficiency analyses show that RCSNet produces more accurate, transferable, road-aligned, and computationally efficient traffic forecasts.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。