arXiv:2605.28324cs.CV2026-05

用图像修复思路做光伏功率预测,效果更好更灵活。

Inpainting-Style Conditional Diffusion for Multivariable Time Series Forecasting

  • 把时间序列转成图像,用扩散模型修复未来缺失部分。
  • 在GEFCom2014数据集上,短时预测误差显著降低。
  • 适合需要高精度短期预测的光伏系统调度场景。

本文提出一种基于条件扩散模型的多变量时间序列光伏功率预测新框架。将时间序列光伏数据通过滑动窗口分块转化为二维结构化表示(图像),从而在统一的时空学习范式中应用去噪扩散概率模型(DDPM)。核心创新在于将光伏预测建模为图像修复问题:未来时间步作为待恢复的缺失区域。通过掩码引导的条件扩散机制,历史观测作为条件上下文保留,目标区域逐步被破坏后经反向扩散过程重建。模型学习在已知数据条件下生成连贯的未来序列,实现时间序列图像修复。为适配U-Net架构并充分利用全部特征,引入零填充策略构建固定尺寸输入。模型采用监督去噪目标训练,以预测注入噪声,确保反向过程中的精确迭代重构。在基准光伏数据集GEFCom2014上的大量实验表明,该方法在短时预测任务中达到高精度,验证了扩散生成建模与图像修复范式结合在鲁棒性、灵活性和高保真度预测方面的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this paper, we propose a novel conditional diffusion-based framework for multivariable time-series solar power forecasting. The proposed method reformulates temporal PV data as structured two-dimensional representations (images) using a sliding-window patch construction, enabling the application of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) within a unified spatiotemporal learning paradigm. A key contribution of this work is the formulation of solar forecasting as an inpainting problem, where future time steps are treated as missing regions to be reconstructed. This is achieved through a mask-based conditional diffusion mechanism, in which historical observations are preserved as conditioning context while the target (future) region is progressively corrupted and subsequently recovered via reverse diffusion. The model learns to generate coherent future sequences conditioned on observed data, effectively performing time-series inpainting. To fully utilize all available features and ensure compatibility with U-Net architectural constraints, a zero-padding strategy is introduced to construct fixed-size inputs. The model is trained using a supervised denoising objective to predict injected noise, enabling accurate iterative reconstruction during the reverse process. Extensive experiments conducted on benchmark PV dataset, including GEFCom2014, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves high forecasting accuracy, particularly for short-term horizons. The results highlight the effectiveness of integrating diffusion-based generative modeling with an inpainting formulation for robust, flexible, and high-fidelity solar power forecasting.

时间序列预测扩散模型光伏预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。