arXiv:2605.28520cs.AI2026-05KDD

让新闻预测股市更准,只在有信息量时才听新闻。

GS-FUSE: Granger-Supervised Gated Fusion and Multi-Granularity Alignment for Event-Driven Financial Forecasting

论文配图:GS-FUSE: Granger-Supervised Gated Fusion and Multi-Granularity Alignment for Event-Driven Financial Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用格兰杰因果监督门控融合,仅当新闻能提供价格之外的新信息时才启用。
  • 在多粒度上对齐事件语义与市场走势,提升预测精度。
  • 适配主流大模型和时间序列模型,通用性强,适合金融量化研究者。

准确预测重大金融事件对市场的影响,对投资者和政策制定者至关重要。然而现有跨模态时间序列模型通常对文本与价格信号对称融合,缺乏明确机制判断新闻是否真正具有预测价值,难以利用事件到价格的单向依赖关系及两类信号的异质作用。本文提出GS-Fuse框架,包含:(i) 基于格兰杰因果监督的因果感知门控融合模块,仅在新闻提供历史价格之外的增量预测信息时才激活;(ii) 多粒度对齐机制,联合对齐高层事件表征与细粒度文本线索与未来市场轨迹。该框架可作为灵活插件式适配器,集成于现成的大语言模型与时间序列基础模型之上,在多种资产与预测周期下实现一致超越当前最优基线的性能。实证结果验证了其有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately forecasting the impact of salient financial events on markets is critical for investors and policymakers. However, existing multimodal time-series models typically fuse text and prices symmetrically, without an explicit way to decide when event text is truly predictive, and thus struggle to exploit the directional event-to-price structure and the heterogeneous roles of textual and price signals. In this work, we propose GS-Fuse, a multimodal event-based forecasting framework that employs (i) a Granger-supervised, causal-aware gated fusion module, which learns to open toward event text only when it provides incremental predictive value beyond historical prices, and (ii) a multi-granularity alignment mechanism that jointly aligns high-level event representations and fine-grained textual cues with future market trajectories. Built as a flexible, plug-and-play adapter on top of off-the-shelf large language models and time-series foundation models, GS-Fuse can be instantiated across diverse backbones and market settings. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets show that GS-Fuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time-series and multimodal baselines across multiple assets and forecasting horizons.

金融预测多模态融合因果建模事件驱动

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