用深度学习直接优化投资组合,显著跑赢大盘。
Financially Guided Deep Portfolio Optimization

- 端到端训练模型,直接优化夏普比率等金融指标
- 2022-2023年实现年化夏普0.29,收益+7.86%
- 适合关注稳健收益与风险控制的量化投资者
现实金融市场中,投资组合优化面临非平稳性、数据噪声和高交易成本等挑战。传统先预测后优化的方法会累积预测误差,在市场结构突变时表现不佳。本文提出一种端到端框架,通过可微分代理目标(夏普比率、欧米伽比率、条件风险价值CVaR、风险平价)直接优化神经网络的权重,并采用扩展窗口的滚动测试方法,对2007至2023年的50只标普500股票进行季度再平衡,考虑真实买卖价差成本。在2022-2023年具有挑战性的测试期,最优模型(AttentionLSTM + 欧米伽-CVaR-风险平价损失)实现年化夏普0.29,总复合收益+7.86%,而标普500总收益为-4.52%,年化夏普-0.02。相对收益提升12.38个百分点(超270%),同时保持尾部风险(CVaR)基本不变。该框架持续优于等权组合、标普500及传统方法(MVP、HRP、NCO),证明将金融目标嵌入训练过程可实现稳健且经济意义明确的超额收益。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction costs. Standard predict-then-optimize methods first forecast returns and then solve for weights, compounding prediction errors and often failing under regime shifts. We propose an end-to-end framework that directly optimizes differentiable surrogates of key financial metrics - Sharpe ratio, Omega ratio, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and Risk Parity - allowing neural networks to learn portfolio weights via backpropagation. Our expanding-window walk-forward procedure, applied to 50 S&P 500 stocks from 2007 to 2023, incorporates realistic bid-ask spread costs and rebalances quarterly. On the challenging out-of-sample test period (2022-2023), the best model - an AttentionLSTM with the Omega-CVaR-RiskParity loss - achieves an annualized Sharpe of 0.29 and a total compounded return of +7.86%, while the S&P 500 delivers -4.52% total return and an annualized Sharpe of -0.02. This outperforms the S&P 500 by 12.38 percentage points (a relative improvement of over 270%), while keeping tail risk (CVaR) nearly unchanged. The framework consistently outperforms the equal-weight portfolio, S&P 500, and traditional methods (MVP, HRP, NCO), demonstrating that embedding financial objectives directly into model training yields robust, economically meaningful outperformance even in adverse market conditions.
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