用进化算法提取企业违约模型中的可解释规则,提升预测准确率与透明度。
Evolutionary Rule Extraction from Corporate Default Prediction Models

- 提出DexiRE-EVO框架,结合多目标优化与上下文重要性方法提取规则。
- 在5万多家意大利中小企业数据上,机器学习模型比传统回归提升显著。
- 揭示了内部现金流弱、杠杆高、经营低效等关键风险特征,适合风控与监管使用。
中小企业(SME)占多数经济体企业主体,但面临融资约束和更高的财务困境风险。信用风险建模中机器学习(ML)虽显著提升预测性能,但复杂模型的不可解释性引发透明度与合规担忧。本研究基于2015-2024年意大利50,718家中小企业面板数据,对比传统计量方法与多种ML分类器。结果表明,ML模型在平衡准确率(Balanced Accuracy)和精确率-召回率曲线下面积(PR-AUC)上均显著优于逻辑回归基准。为解决可解释性问题,提出DExiRE-EVO框架,融合多目标优化与上下文重要性与效用(CIU)解释方法。提取规则揭示了与财务困境相关的经济意义模式,包括内生现金流生成能力弱、内部资本侵蚀、高杠杆及运营效率低下;同时宏观环境与金融不稳定性持续性也加剧风险识别。整体表明,将机器学习与进化规则提取结合,可在保持高性能的同时增强可解释性,支持更透明的数据驱动金融决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of firms in most economies and often face financial constraints and higher vulnerability to financial distress. Predicting SME default is therefore crucial for financial institutions, policymakers, and researchers. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have improved predictive performance in credit risk modeling. Yet, the limited interpretability of complex models raises concerns regarding transparency and regulatory compliance. This study investigates SME's default predictors and applies explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to them. Using a panel of 50,718 Italian SME over the period 2015-2024, we compare traditional econometric approaches with several ML classifiers. The empirical results show that ML models significantly outperform the traditional logistic regression benchmark in terms of Balanced Accuracy and PR-AUC. To address the interpretability challenge, we introduce DEXiRE-EVO, a novel evolutionary rule extraction framework that combines multi-objective optimization with the Contextual Importance and Utility (CIU) explainability method. The extracted rules reveal economically meaningful patterns associated with SME financial distress, highlighting the roles of weak internal liquidity generation, internal capital erosion, high leverage, and operational inefficiency. Additionally, contextual macroeconomic conditions and the persistence of financial instability contribute to identifying high-risk firms. In general, the results show that combining ML with evolutionary rule extraction can improve both predictive performance and interpretability in credit risk modeling, thus supporting more transparent, data-driven decision-making in financial environments.
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