生成式AI让联邦民事诉讼自诉率飙升,但效果未必好。
The New Pro Se: Generative AI and the Surge in Federal Civil Self-Representation
- 用280万份文件分析,自诉率从11.33%升至16.94%。
- 13.9%的非模板诉状被检测出含AI写作特征,多为新手原告。
- 虽文本更密集引用,但胜诉率反而更低,案件更早被驳回。
自生成式AI普及以来,联邦民事诉讼中自诉(无律师代理)原告数量显著上升。本文基于2008-2025财年约280万份立案数据,发现自诉率从生成式AI出现前的11.33%升至16.94%,提升5.61个百分点,且在控制趋势与协变量后仍显著。聚焦民权及其他法定案件,通过文体学AI检测指标构建可解释的AI一致性判定标准,发现73.3%的后生成式AI非模板诉状中,有13.9%符合AI写作特征。这些诉状更注重引用、多来自首次起诉者,地理分布不均。其中女性原告比例略有上升。然而,这些高AI特征诉状反而更易被驳回,且终结于早期程序阶段,未见胜诉率提升。研究揭示了法律形式与实际效力之间的张力,引发对司法可及性与法院筛查负担的新思考。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Since public access to generative AI tools became widespread, federal civil litigation has seen a marked increase in pro se (self-represented) plaintiffs. This paper analyzes that shift using ~2.8 million filings, asking whether the post-GenAI period is associated not only with more pro se filings, but also with detectable changes in complaint text, litigation outcomes, and the composition of pro se litigants. Using civil filing data from FY2008-2025, we find that the federal civil pro se plaintiff rate rose from 11.33% pre-GenAI to 16.94% post-GenAI, a 5.61 percentage-point increase that persists after trend and covariate-adjusted robustness checks. We then focus on Civil Rights and Other Statutory cases, where the increase is especially pronounced, and link case metadata to pro se complaints. Drawing on stylometric AI detection indicators, we develop an interpretable measure of AI-consistent drafting. Against a threshold calibrated to the pre-GenAI baseline, the net AI-flagged share is 13.9% of post-GenAI non-form complaints. Analysis of the AI-flagged complaints shows that they are more citation-dense, disproportionately associated with first-time rather than repeat filers, and geographically unevenly distributed. This composition pattern suggests that AI-consistent drafting is not merely a repeat-filer phenomenon; it also includes a modest, suggestive increase in name-inferred female plaintiffs. We find no evidence of improved win rates; in fact, AI-flagged complaints are more likely to be dismissed and to terminate at earlier procedural phases. These findings raise new questions about access to justice and court screening burdens, and sharpen the distinction between legal formality and legal efficacy.
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