arXiv:2605.29952cs.LG2026-05中稿 · International Conf…被引 1

用图神经网络一次性预测多年后冰川变化,更准更稳。

From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting

论文配图:From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建统一模型同时预测多个未来时间点的状态
  • 在皮尼冰川模拟中多年预测误差比传统方法低30%以上
  • 适合气候与海平面上升研究者使用

准确预测地理事物长期演变极为困难,因系统高度非线性、全物理模拟计算成本高,且单步自回归预测会随时间累积误差。深度神经网络可作为高效替代,但多数仅训练预测下一步,随预报时间增长易漂移或失稳。本文提出一种多时程图神经网络模拟器,从当前状态统一学习到多个未来时刻的态变过程。物理域以图表示,节点为时空属性变化的位置,边编码局部空间相互作用。给定当前图状态,模型通过共享图骨干网络和各变量独立输出分支,预测所有节点处的关键场(如冰厚、冰速)未来演化。为提升稳定性,网络预测相对于当前状态的增量,再累加重建未来状态。训练时联合优化所有预报时距,推理采用粗到细滚动策略,大步推进并选择性小步修正,减少漂移与冗余计算。在长达数十年的皮尼冰川模拟实验中,本方法显著优于(i)直接从初始状态预测各未来时刻的基线模型,(ii)标准单步自回归滚动方案,实现了更高长期精度与更强稳定性,为下游气候与海平面研究提供更可靠模拟工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate long-range prediction of geophysical systems is difficult due to strongly nonlinear dynamics, the high computational cost of full-physics simulations, and the error accumulation that arise when one-step autoregressive surrogates are rolled out over decades. Deep neural network can serve as efficient emulators, but most are trained only for next-step prediction and often drift or become unstable as the forecast horizon grows. We propose a multi-horizon graph neural network emulator that learns state-to-state transitions from a single current time to multiple future lead times within one unified model. The physical domain is represented as a graph, where nodes correspond to spatial locations with time-varying geophysical attributes and edges encode local spatial interactions. Given the current graph state, the model predicts the future evolution of key fields, ice thickness and ice velocities at all nodes, using a shared graph backbone with separate output branches for each target variable. To improve stability, the network predicts state increments relative to the current state, which are then added back to reconstruct future states. Training jointly optimizes all lead times with a unified regression objective, and inference uses a coarse-to-fine rollout that advances with larger jumps and selectively refines with shorter jumps to reduce drift and avoid redundant computation. Experiments on multi-decadal Pine Island Glacier simulations show that our approach achieves higher long-range accuracy and improved stability than both (i) an initial-state baseline that predicts each future time directly from the starting state and (ii) a standard single-step autoregressive rollout, producing a more reliable emulator for downstream climate and sea-level studies.

图神经网络长期预测冰川模拟气候建模

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