ML天气模型经改造后可稳定模拟多十年气候,媲美传统气候模型。
Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations

- 用海温/海冰做边界条件,将预报模型转为气候模拟器。
- 长期运行中气候周期稳定,与再分析数据一致,能捕捉极端值尾部。
- 适合研究气候建模、机器学习在气候领域的应用者参考。
我们评估了两个基于机器学习的模型——ArchesWeather(确定性)和ArchesWeatherGen(概率性流匹配模型)——在多十年气候模拟中的表现。这两个模型最初用于天气预报,最多预测10天。本研究通过引入月平均海表温度(SST)和海冰覆盖(SIC)作为边界条件,将其改造为受迫大气模型,并遵循AI模型互比项目(AIMIP)Phase 1协议,采用标准化实验流程进行评估。结果表明,尽管原为短期预报设计,但两模型在受迫配置下仍能实现长期气候模拟的稳定性,维持稳定的年循环,准确再现许多气候变量的漂移趋势。它们忠实复现了ERA5的气候态、大尺度环流及年际变率,并能捕捉分布尾部特征,性能可与数值气候模型相媲美。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time. ArchesWeather is a deterministic model, while ArchesWeatherGen is a probabilistic flow-matching model leveraging ArchesWeather's forecasts, enabling ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. In this work, we adapt these models to act as forced atmospheric models by using additional conditioning on the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) as boundary conditions. In particular, we follow the AI Model Intercomparison Project (AIMIP) Phase 1 protocol, which, analogous to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), proposes a standardized experimental setup to evaluate the climate skill of ML-based forced atmospheric models. We present a comprehensive evaluation of both models under these conditions, including comparison against numerical climate models, ablation studies that examine key design choices in the extension, and an analysis of forced versus unforced configurations. Despite being originally developed for weather forecasting, we demonstrate that forced configurations of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen produce stable long-term climate simulations, have a stable annual cycle, and capture the drift of many climate variables. The models faithfully reproduce ERA5's climatology, large-scale circulations and interannual variability, and they capture the tails of the distributions.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。