用智能体融合语言与时间序列模型,提升跨领域预测准确性。
KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning

- 设计双引擎框架:语言模型负责语义推理,时间序列模型专注数值预测。
- 在多个数据集上实现零样本预测领先性能,优于现有方法10%以上。
- 适合需要可解释性与跨模态理解的工业级时间序列预测场景。
跨领域多模态时间序列预测是一项挑战性任务,要求模型同时具备精确的数值理解、跨领域语义认知和有效的多模态融合能力。现有方法要么从头构建时间序列基础模型(TSFM),要么依赖预训练大语言模型(LLM)。然而,TSFM常忽略语义理解且无法进行面向未来的语义推理,而LLM则在数值理解和精确量化预测方面表现不足。为此,我们提出KairosAgent,一种新型代理式多模态时间序列预测框架,包含基于LLM的推理器和基于TSFM的预测器。该框架通过动态调用分析工具,将语义推理结果融入TSFM流程,增强大模型的数值理解与推理能力。为提升推理质量,我们构建了一个大规模高质量轨迹语料库,并采用多轮精炼与逐轮信用分配的强化学习范式。实验表明,KairosAgent在多个基准上实现卓越的零样本预测性能,最大化利用了预训练的LLM与TSFM,为高效、可解释的时间序列智能体提供了新方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .
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