从早期行为轨迹预测人未来策略,无需完整数据。
Early Prediction of Future Behavioral Strategy from Process Traces

- 用潜变量模型融合多任务过程数据,提取通用人格特征
- 在清洁游戏任务中准确预测玩家后续行为模式(区划规划者/频繁切换者)
- 适合教育、游戏、人机协作等需快速判断用户行为的场景
自适应系统常需基于有限证据预测个体在新任务中的行为策略:如导师预判学习者解题方式,游戏调整难度,或人机系统判断合作方是否坚持计划。传统方法依赖结果汇总(如得分、完成率),但会掩盖不同行为路径;而过程轨迹虽丰富,却易受任务设计干扰。本文提出过程级潜变量模型(PLVM),通过部分源任务轨迹,融合生成共享的人格级潜在表示,以预测目标任务的行为策略。在《PowerWash Simulator》自然行为数据集中,仅用两个清洁任务的部分轨迹,即可准确预测玩家在未见过的消防站关卡中是持续规划区域(Zone Planner)还是频繁切换(Zone Hopper)。控制模拟显示,当源任务揭示互补的潜在维度时,跨任务融合显著提升预测性能。结果表明,该方法可在无法获取完整目标任务数据时,实现早期精准策略预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Adaptive systems often need to make task-specific decisions about people from limited evidence: a tutor may need to anticipate how a learner will approach a new problem, a game may need to adapt when a player enters a new level, and a human-AI system may need to infer whether a partner will persist with a plan or switch goals. These decisions depend on person-level tendencies that shape how people solve related tasks, but such tendencies are difficult to infer from standard behavioral evidence. One approach is to use aggregate outcome summaries, such as scores, completion rates, or productivity; these summaries are compact and available across tasks, but can collapse distinct behavioral processes into similar outcomes. Another approach is to use process-level traces, which record how behavior unfolds; however, process modeling within one task can entangle stable person-level tendencies with task-specific layout and affordances. In this work, we study early cross-task behavioral inference: whether partial source-task process traces can reveal transferable person-level structure that predicts strategy in a held-out target task. We introduce a Process-Level Latent Variable Model (PLVM), which encodes task-specific traces and fuses them into a shared person-level latent representation for cross-task prediction. In PowerWash Simulator, a naturalistic telemetry dataset of human gameplay, PLVM uses partial traces from two cleaning tasks to predict locally persistent Zone Planner behavior versus frequent Zone Hopper behavior in the held-out Fire Station level. Controlled simulations with known latent types show that cross-task fusion helps when source tasks reveal complementary dimensions of a shared latent process. These results suggest that process-level cross-task modeling can support early prediction of target-task strategy when observing sufficient target-task behavior is impractical.
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