给轨迹预测难度打分,跨系统通用且可迁移。
Learning Transferable Predictability Representations

- 用五级可预测性阶梯建模,通过锚点与方差损失固定分数坐标。
- 预训练模型初始化显著提升小样本下的预测性能,零样本仍保持有序性。
- 适合需要跨系统预测能力评估的科研与工程场景。
我们研究如何为短轨迹窗口分配一个标量得分,反映其在从结构化确定性动力学到无序随机噪声的可预测性连续谱中的位置。现有方法仅在单一系统内区分确定性与随机性,无法跨系统保持一致的数值解释。本文将问题形式化为五级可预测性阶梯的序数估计,并揭示跨系统模糊性的根源:仅使用排序监督时,得分坐标可任意单调变换,称为序数评分的规范自由。为此提出Gauge-Fixed Ordinal Network(GON),一种基于2-喷流特征的时序卷积网络,采用锚点与方差目标,将各层级得分均值固定到共享目标坐标。该模型在五个独立动力系统上验证:从预训练检查点初始化始终优于从头训练,适应深度反映与训练家族的几何接近度。零样本得分在随机边界仍保持有序性,此时随机替代过程强烈破坏非线性几何结构,预训练初始化在所有窗口预算下均优于从头训练。成对判别与全局一致的序数评分是两个独立属性,需稳定得分坐标以实现跨系统迁移,对自然与工程系统的可预测性评估、模型选择及早期预警诊断具有直接意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study the problem of assigning a scalar score to a short trajectory window that reflects its position on an ordered continuum of predictability regimes, spanning structured deterministic dynamics to unstructured stochastic noise. Existing methods address deterministic-versus-stochastic discrimination within a single system and do not produce scores with a consistent numerical interpretation across systems. We formalize this as ordinal estimation over a five-level predictability ladder and identify a structural source of cross-system ambiguity: ranking supervision alone leaves the score coordinate unfixed up to a monotone reparameterization, which we term the gauge freedom of ordinal scoring. We propose the Gauge-Fixed Ordinal Network (GON), a temporal convolutional model trained with an anchor-and-variance objective that pins level-wise score means to shared target coordinates. GON operates on 2-jet features that expose local trajectory geometry, preserved by smooth flows and disrupted by stochastic surrogate procedures. On five held-out dynamical systems, initializing from a pretrained GON checkpoint consistently outperforms training from scratch across all window budgets, with adaptation depth reflecting geometric proximity to the training family. Zero-shot scores retain ordinal structure at the stochastic boundary, where surrogate procedures most strongly disrupt nonlinear geometry, and pretrained initialization consistently beats scratch across all window budgets. Pairwise discrimination and globally coherent ordinal scoring are distinct properties requiring a stable score coordinate for cross-system transfer, with direct implications for predictability assessment, model selection, and early-warning diagnostics across natural and engineered dynamical systems.
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