用多任务学习预测发动机健康状态与剩余寿命,带不确定性评估。
Scientific Machine Learning for Engine Health Management and Remaining Useful Life Prediction

- 共享编码器+任务头结构,联合预测温度与剩余寿命。
- 在飞行阶段和维修段上均表现稳定,覆盖率达90%以上。
- 可定制阈值规则,适合工业界实际维护策略部署。
发动机健康管理依赖于剩余使用寿命(RUL)的可靠预测以及涡轮燃气温度(TGT)等热指标的跟踪。现实中机队数据具有异质性和非平稳性,仅靠点预测不足以支持风险感知的维护决策。本文提出一种用于涡轮机预测的多任务科学机器学习框架,联合预测未修正的涡轮燃气温度(TGTU)、Δ涡轮燃气温度(DTGT)和RUL,以预测区间形式量化不确定性,并评估其经验覆盖率。该框架采用共享序列编码器(含卷积前段、残差双向LSTM层与注意力池化),接入任务专用头部,包括用于概率回归的均值-方差估计,以及可选的生存头部以建模阈值事件。通过少量面向实践者的参数(如DTGT阈值规则和RUL目标构建方式)实现可调性,确保部署符合内部政策与专有标准。预测性能通过点预测与区间指标综合评估,包括平均绝对误差(MAE)、预测区间覆盖率(PICP)、平均区间宽度(MPIW)及覆盖-宽度准则(CWC)。结果按飞行阶段和维修段分层报告,揭示操作情境影响,支持不确定性感知监控。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Engine Health Management (EHM) depends on reliable forecasting of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and on tracking thermal indicators such as turbine gas temperature (TGT). In practice, real-world fleet data are heterogeneous and non-stationary, and point predictions alone are insufficient for risk-aware maintenance decisions. This paper presents a multi-task scientific machine learning framework for turbine prognostics that jointly predicts turbine gas temperature untrimmed (TGTU), Delta Turbine Gas Temperature (DTGT), and RUL, with quantified uncertainty in the form of prediction intervals whose empirical coverage is evaluated. A shared sequence encoder (convolutional front-end with residual bidirectional LSTM layers and attention pooling) feeds task-specific heads, including mean--variance estimation for probabilistic regression and, optionally, a survival head for threshold-based event modeling. The framework is designed to be tunable via a small set of practitioner-facing parameters (e.g., DTGT thresholding rules and RUL target construction) so that deployment can align with in-house policies and proprietary criteria. The predictive performance of the proposed framework is evaluated using both point and interval metrics, including mean absolute error (MAE), prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), mean prediction interval width (MPIW), and the coverage--width criterion (CWC). Results are reported both in aggregate and stratified by flight phase and maintenance segment to highlight operational-context effects and to support uncertainty-aware monitoring.
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