让智能体学会从过往预测中提炼可复用的判断因子,提升未来预测的准确性和可靠性。
ForecastCompass: Guiding Agentic Forecasting with Adaptive Factor Memory

- 构建分层任务分类体系,动态存储可复用的预测维度与校准知识。
- 在 Prophet Arena 和 FutureX 上,概率准确性与校准度均显著提升。
- 适合需要长期积累预测经验的决策型智能体使用。
智能体预测在动态环境中对决策至关重要,但挑战在于需基于不完整、限时的信息生成校准的概率判断。记忆是将已解决预测的经验迁移至未来任务的自然机制。然而,现有方法未专门针对预测设计,通常仅存储过往交互、反思或事实关联,缺乏对可复用预测因子或校准知识的显式表征。本文提出 ForecastCompass(FoCo),一种基于自适应因子的记忆框架。FoCo 采用分层预测任务分类体系组织经验,支持任务相关知识的检索;维护两个互补记忆组件:因子记忆(捕获可复用的预测维度)和推理记忆(编码概率更新、不确定性处理与校准原则)。利用回溯分析作为学习信号,通过可表述的记忆修订流程迭代优化记忆,使智能体能持续积累可迁移的预测知识。在 Prophet Arena 与 FutureX 上,使用 GPT-5-mini 与 Gemini-2.5-Flash 的实验表明,FoCo 显著提升了概率准确率与校准性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass (FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.
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