用市场反馈动态调整金融新闻检索,提升预测准确性和投资回报。
Point-in-Time Financial RAG with Frozen LLMs and Market-Feedback Adaptive Retrieval

- 冻结大模型,通过贝叶斯记忆库动态优化新闻和财报片段的检索顺序。
- 在89只纳斯达克股票上,宏观F1从0.438提升至0.471,投资组合夏普比率从0.52升至0.84。
- 适合关注金融预测与量化交易系统优化的研究者和从业者。
金融检索增强生成(RAG)系统通常按文本相关性排序证据,但在金融市场中,证据的有效性取决于事件类型、预测时间跨度和市场背景。本文将新闻触发的事件影响预测视为一个时点性金融RAG问题。针对每家公司-新闻锚点,系统检索金融新闻与美国证券交易委员会文件片段,并附加一个预决策市场上下文卡片,以预测多时间跨度的残差收益信号。方法保持大模型冻结,通过外部贝叶斯源记忆库(由成熟残差收益反馈更新)自适应调整检索策略。在基于FinRL-DeepSeek/FNSPID任务构建的89只纳斯达克股票固定样本池上,使用原始FNSPID新闻与时点级EDGAR文件片段,带源记忆的冻结阅读器将保留宏平均F1从0.438提升至0.471,下游投资组合夏普比率从0.52增至0.84,优于无记忆的冻结阅读器。监督微调的LoRA在静态检索下仅有小幅提升,但经源记忆适配后,其性能未超过冻结阅读器。结果表明,在金融RAG系统中,学习‘何处检索’可能比‘如何阅读’更重要,为市场反馈自适应提供了模块化路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically rank evidence by textual relevance, but in financial markets evidence utility depends on event type, forecast horizon, and market context. We study news-triggered event-impact prediction as a point-in-time financial RAG problem. For each company-news anchor, the system retrieves financial news and SEC filing passages, appends a pre-decision market-context card, and predicts multi-horizon residual-return signals. Our method keeps the LLM frozen and adapts retrieval through an external Bayesian source memory updated from matured residual-return feedback. On a fixed 89-stock Nasdaq-oriented universe derived from the FinRL-DeepSeek/FNSPID task, using original FNSPID news and point-in-time EDGAR filing passages, Frozen Reader with Source Memory improves held-out macro-F1 from 0.438 to 0.471 and downstream portfolio Sharpe from 0.52 to 0.84 relative to Frozen Reader with No Memory. Supervised LoRA gives modest gains under static retrieval, but after source-memory adaptation, the LoRA reader does not improve over the frozen reader. These results suggest that, for financial RAG systems, learning where to retrieve can be as important as learning how to read, offering a modular route to market-feedback adaptation.
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