为罕见事件的因果路径提供可检验的形式化定义
Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events
- 提出罕见事件因果路径的形式化定义及其可检验性
- 发现某些推论仅依赖路径抽象，无需完整因果图
- 连接口头解释与详细建模，适合故障分析场景
基于结构方程模型中对罕见事件（'异常值'）根因分析的最新形式化方法，本文提出了因果路径的正式定义，并讨论其可检验的推论。我们识别出这些推论仅依赖于罕见事件路径的因果抽象，而非系统完整因果图的条件。因此，我们引入一种针对罕见事件路径的因果结构抽象，弥合了简单口头因果解释与详细因果建模之间的差距。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Building on recent formalizations of root cause analysis for rare events (``outliers'') in structural equation models, we propose a formal definition of a causal pathway and discuss its testable implications. We identify conditions under which these implications depend only on a causal abstraction defined by the pathway of rare events, rather than on the full causal graph of the underlying system. Accordingly, we introduce an abstraction of causal structure to pathways of rare events that bridges simple verbal causal explanations and detailed causal modeling.
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