arXiv:2606.00143q-fin.PMcs.AI2026-06KDD

让投资模型自动识别市场变化并快速调整策略,提升长期收益。

Regime-Adaptive Continual Learning for Portfolio Management

论文配图:Regime-Adaptive Continual Learning for Portfolio Management
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过动态识别市场阶段,分阶段学习并存储投资策略
  • 在新阶段切换时,快速组合已有策略,适应市场变化
  • 适合追求长期稳健收益的量化交易研究者

金融市场具有显著非平稳性,频繁发生状态转换和结构变迁,使传统投资管理方法失效。现有方法如滚动窗口重训练和简单在线微调,分别面临计算开销大和知识利用不足的问题,导致收益低、适应性差。持续学习(CL)提供了一种新范式,使交易代理可在连续任务中积累并迁移知识。本文提出一种新型框架ReCAP(Regime-aware Continual Adaptive Portfolio management),将持续学习融入投资管理,应对动态金融环境挑战。ReCAP采用自适应状态检测模块,将历史市场数据划分为可变长度的状态区间,实现针对不同状态的学习与策略库构建。在持续交易过程中,状态门控模块根据当前市场状态,自适应地组合策略库中的策略向量,实现对新状态的快速响应。仅更新状态门控模块和当前状态的策略向量,有效保留有用知识。在五个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,ReCAP持续优于主流基线,在长期投资周期中获得更高回报,并能快速适应状态转移。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, exhibiting frequent regime shifts and structural changes that render traditional Portfolio Management (PM) approaches ineffective. Existing remedies, such as rolling-window retraining and naive online fine-tuning, are hindered by high computational costs and insufficient knowledge utilization, respectively, resulting in low returns and limited adaptability. Continual learning (CL) offers a promising paradigm by enabling trading agents to accumulate and transfer knowledge across sequential tasks. In this paper, we propose \textbf{Re}gime-aware \textbf{C}ontinual \textbf{A}daptive \textbf{P}ortfolio management (\textbf{ReCAP}), a novel framework that integrates CL into PM to address the challenges of dynamic financial environments. ReCAP employs an adaptive regime detection module to segment historical market data into variable-length regimes, enabling regime-specific learning of policy vectors and the construction of a policy library. During continual trading, a regime-gate module adaptively combines policy vectors from the library based on the current market state, facilitating rapid adaptation to newly detected regimes. Only the regime-gate and the current regime's policy vector are continually updated to preserve useful knowledge effectively. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that ReCAP consistently outperforms popular baselines, achieving superior returns in long-term investment horizons and rapid adaptation to regime shifts.

投资管理持续学习市场状态

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