arXiv:2606.00278cs.AI2026-06中稿 · ICML

无需假设忠实性,用兼容性评分评估多个因果关系的可信度。

Evaluating Bivariate Causal Statements Based on Mutual Compatibility

论文配图:Evaluating Bivariate Causal Statements Based on Mutual Compatibility
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过兼容性评分衡量因果陈述的合理性,避免依赖忠实性假设。
  • 在真实数据中成功区分正确与错误的因果判断,表现稳定可靠。
  • 适合评估大模型或专家提出的因果推断,尤其缺乏验证时场景。

许多现实系统中因果真相难以获取,导致因果效应的声明难以评估。本文提出方法,用于评估一组 n 个变量之间的 ↘n↙/2 个二元因果陈述。在无环线性设定下,任意此类集合可扩展为唯一多变量因果模型,但若该模型需引入显著额外混杂因素解释观测相关性,则其合理性存疑。为此,我们提出兼容性得分以量化这种合理性,且不依赖忠实性假设。同时,针对纯图结构的二元因果陈述,定义了基于无环性和忠实性推导出全局一致性约束的不兼容性得分。理论与实证表明,两类得分在典型场景中能有效区分正确与错误的因果声明。此外,我们通过分析大语言模型的因果主张,展示了方法的实际应用价值。本工作旨在为人类专家或人工智能在缺乏替代验证手段时提供的因果信息,建立可靠性评估基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess. We develop methods for evaluating collections of $\binom{n}{2}$ bivariate causal statements over a set of $n$ variables. In the setting of acyclic linear statements, any such collection can be extended to a unique multivariate causal model, but we argue that this induced model is implausible if it imposes substantial additional confounding to explain observed correlations. We introduce a compatibility score that quantifies this notion of plausibility, notably without relying on the faithfulness assumption. Additionally, we define an incompatibility score for purely graphical bivariate causal statements, based on global consistency constraints that are derived from acyclicity and faithfulness assumptions. We give theoretical and empirical evidence that both scores can successfully distinguish correct from incorrect causal statements in generic settings. Moreover, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our methods by analyzing causal claims made by large language models. Our work aims to provide a foundation for assessing the reliability of causal information derived from human experts or artificial intelligence in settings where alternative forms of validation are unavailable.

因果推断兼容性评分大模型评估

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