arXiv:2606.00320cs.LG2026-06

无需假设数据分布,实时控制极端风险,保障系统安全。

Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference

论文配图:Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于鲁棒性推理与变分表示,构建在线风险控制新方法。
  • 在非平稳、对抗环境下实现目标风险水平的渐近控制。
  • 适用于金融风控与大模型毒性治理等高风险场景。

我们提出一种在线、无需分布假设的条件风险价值(CVaR)控制框架,将拟合尾部风险控制扩展至非平稳和对抗环境。不同于依赖平稳性或期望线性的传统方法,该方法在任意数据生成过程中均能提供对非线性尾部风险函数的可证明安全保证。通过结合拟合尾部风险控制、在线学习与Rockafellar-Uryasev提出的CVaR变分表示,我们设计了一种具备对抗后悔保证的在线CVaR控制新算法。该方法无需对数据生成过程做任何假设,适用于现代高风险部署场景。我们证明了实际经验CVaR可渐近控制在目标水平,且控制结果在有限样本下仅存在可接受的保守差距。实验验证了其在投资组合风险管理及大语言模型毒性缓解中的有效性,尤其针对罕见但灾难性的失败事件主导系统风险的情形。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We present an online, distribution-free framework for controlling the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), extending conformal tail risk control to non-stationary and adversarial environments. Unlike classical risk control methods, which rely on stationarity or linearity of expectation, our approach provides provable safety guarantees for a nonlinear tail risk functional under arbitrary data-generating processes that may drift or shift strategically over time. By leveraging deep connections between conformal tail risk control, online learning, and the variational representation of CVaR introduced by Rockafellar and Uryasev, we develop a novel procedure for online CVaR control with adversarial regret guarantees. The proposed method operates without assumptions on the underlying data-generating process, making it broadly applicable in modern high-stakes deployment settings. We prove that the realized empirical CVaR is asymptotically controlled at the target level, and that the resulting control is asymptotically tight up to a finite-sample conservatism gap. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on portfolio risk management and toxicity mitigation for Large Language Models (LLMs), where rare but catastrophic failures dominate system risk.

风险控制在线学习大模型安全

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