arXiv:2606.00506cs.AIcs.LG2026-06KDD被引 1

提出兼顾时空关联与不确定性估计的能源预测模型,提升电网管理可靠性。

EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

论文配图:EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入电网拓扑构建图增强状态空间模型,融合时空依赖关系。
  • 在四大数据集上准确率提升5%,不确定性量化能力提升6%。
  • 适合电力系统、智能电网领域研究者,应对极端天气等异常场景。

能源消费预测对高效电网管理、需求侧优化和可持续能源规划至关重要。尽管已有先进机器学习方法提升预测性能,但现有工作存在两大局限:(1) 通常将任务视为纯时间序列预测,未显式建模不同区域间的空间依赖;(2) 在极端天气等异常情况下无法提供可靠且带不确定性估计的预测。为此,我们提出EnergyMamba,一个具备不确定性感知能力的时空学习框架,包含两个核心组件:(i) 图增强选择性状态空间模型(GE-Mamba),将电网拓扑学习到的空间上下文注入时间动态,实现耦合的时空建模;(ii) 自适应顺序分位数回归校准模块(AS-CQR),结合局部自适应归一化与在线反馈机制,动态校准潜在分布偏移下的预测区间。我们在佛罗里达、纽约和加州的四个大规模真实数据集上评估了EnergyMamba。结果表明,其预测准确率相比15个前沿基线平均提升约5%,不确定性量化能力提升约6%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning. Although advanced machine learning methods have been employed for better prediction performance, existing works have two key limitations: (1) they usually formulate this task as a purely time-series prediction problem without explicitly modeling the spatial dependencies among different regions, and (2) they fail to provide reliable predictions with uncertainty estimates under abnormal situations such as extreme weather events. To advance existing research, we propose EnergyMamba, an uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal learning framework for accurate and reliable energy consumption prediction, which comprises two key components: (i) a novel Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model (GE-Mamba) that injects spatial context learned from the grid topology into the temporal dynamics, enabling coupled spatiotemporal modeling, and (ii) an Adaptive Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression (AS-CQR) module, which includes locally adaptive normalization and an online feedback mechanism to dynamically calibrate prediction intervals under potential distribution shifts. We evaluate EnergyMamba on four large-scale real-world datasets from Florida, New York, and California. Results show EnergyMamba achieves around 5% improvement in prediction accuracy and 6% improvement in uncertainty quantification over 15 state-of-the-art baselines.

能源预测时空模型不确定性估计图神经网络

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