用图注意力网络预测公交乘降量,提升出行全程的预测精度。
Spatiotemporal Multi-Task Graph Transformer for Trip-Level Transit Prediction

- 将行程预测建模为序列到序列任务,融合时空图与多任务学习。
- 在特隆赫姆公交数据上,下车预测的R²提升0.24,整体表现优于传统方法。
- 适合交通规划者和数字孪生系统使用,支持长期决策分析。
公共交通系统的乘客数量数据揭示了城市出行模式,对规划、运营与优化至关重要。然而,站点与线路间的非线性时空依赖关系使建模与预测变得复杂。现有方法多依赖固定的时序、空间或站点级结构,难以捕捉单次行程的演化过程与网络上下文。本文提出SMT-GraphFormer,一种时空多任务图变换器,将行程级出行预测建模为序列到序列问题。给定线路站点序列与行程上下文,模型预测连续的上下车人数,同时将延误与停靠时间作为编码器侧的代理任务。核心组件包括用于多关系站点相似性的图嵌入、融合天气与时间信息的上下文编码器,以及生成任务特异性解码表示的多门混合专家模块。在挪威特隆赫姆的公共巴士数据集上评估显示,SMT-GraphFormer优于站点级表格基准。消融实验验证了各组件贡献。序列化建模显著提升了下车预测(R²提升0.24),并在上车、延误与停靠时间预测中均取得一致改进,证实了显式行程级序列偏差与多目标依赖的价值。结果表明,基于Transformer的序列建模可有效捕捉公共交通中的复杂时空动态,强调针对出行数据定制架构的重要性。该框架提供无时间范围限制的场景分析基础,助力规划者与运营方做出更优决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Passenger count data from public transit systems reveals urban mobility patterns and is essential for planning, operation, and optimisation. However, non-linear spatiotemporal interdependencies across stops and lines make modelling and prediction challenging. Existing approaches often rely on fixed temporal, spatial, or stop-level formulations, limiting their ability to capture within-trip evolution and network context. This study proposes SMT-GraphFormer, a spatiotemporal multi-task graph transformer that frames trip-level transit prediction as sequence-to-sequence modelling. Given a line's stop sequence and trip-level context, the model predicts successive boarding and alighting counts, with delay and dwell time treated as encoder-side surrogate tasks. Key components include graph embeddings for multi-relational stop similarity, a context encoder for weather and temporal information, and a multi-gate mixture-of-experts module that produces task-specific decoder representations for boarding and alighting predictions. Evaluation on public bus transit data from Trondheim, Norway, shows that SMT-GraphFormer outperforms stop-level tabular benchmarks, with ablation studies examining each component's contribution. The sequential formulation yields substantial gains on alighting prediction ($+$0.24 in $R^2$) and consistent improvements on boarding, delay, and dwell, confirming the value of explicit trip-level sequential bias and inter-target dependencies. These findings demonstrate the potential of transformer-based sequence modelling for capturing complex spatiotemporal dynamics in public transit and underscore the value of architectures tailored to transit data rather than off-the-shelf tabular models. The proposed framework provides a horizon-agnostic basis for scenario analysis in digital twin environments, supporting informed decision-making by planners and transit operators.
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