arXiv:2606.00979cs.LG2026-06KDD

统一元泛化框架提升跨域到店时间预测,支持冷启动新区域

UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA

论文配图:UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建双分支架构+元学习机制,动态调节特征门控与预测
  • 在冷启动新区域上误差降低23.6%,线上测试点击率提升1.8%
  • 适合物流平台、配送系统等需快速部署新区域的场景

准确预测订单到店时间(ETA)对即时物流至关重要,可提升用户满意度、优化调度并控制成本。在国际按需配送平台中,来自不同国家/地区的数据模式差异大,多域建模尤为重要。然而现有方法仍面临三大挑战:一是模型难以泛化至完全未见的新区域,无法实现初始冷启动阶段的零样本预测;二是跨域特征空间常被假设一致,但新区域因缺乏历史数据,常出现离线特征缺失;三是特征缺失迫使工业系统分别建模成熟区与冷启动区,阻碍知识迁移且增加维护成本。为此,我们提出UME(统一元泛化框架),融合统一双分支结构与基于超网络的新型元学习机制。通过利用域级知识与实例级上下文,元学习器驱动三个元模块动态调节特征门控、专家注意力与最终预测,捕捉跨域相关性并促进域内自适应。进一步引入知识蒸馏策略提升性能。该框架已在美团-饿了么国际配送平台(中国最大国际外卖平台)上线。大量离线实验与在线A/B测试表明,UME显著优于现有基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction on checkout page is crucial in instant logistics for enhancing user satisfaction, optimizing dispatching, and controlling operational costs. In international on-demand delivery platforms, where ETA data originates from diverse countries or regions with different patterns, multi-domain modeling is of great importance and has been widely adopted. However, existing methods still face three critical challenges in real-world deployment. First, current multi-domain models struggle to generalize to completely unseen domains, failing to achieve zero-shot prediction during the initial cold-start phase. Second, cross-domain feature spaces are often assumed to be consistent, whereas new domains commonly suffer from structural missingness of offline (statistical) features due to the lack of historical data. Third, such feature missingness often compels industrial systems to model mature and cold-start domains separately, hindering knowledge transfer and increasing maintenance overhead. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{UME}, a \textbf{U}nified \textbf{M}eta-generalization framework for \textbf{E}TA. Specifically, UME integrates a unified dual-branch architecture with a novel meta-learning mechanism that employs a hypernetwork-based meta learner. By leveraging domain-level knowledge and instance-level context, the meta learner empowers three meta modules to dynamically modulate feature gating, expert attention, and final prediction, capturing cross-domain correlations and facilitating intra-domain adaptation. A knowledge distillation strategy is further introduce to enhance performance. UME has now been deployed in Meituan-keeta delivery platform (the largest international food delivery platform in China). Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate that UME significantly outperforms existing baselines.

ETA预测元学习跨域泛化物流系统

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