机器人通过学习障碍物持续时间,智能决定等还是绕行。
OSCAR: Obstacle Survival Curves for Adaptive Robot Navigation

- 基于障碍物类型构建生存模型,动态估计清除时间分布。
- 仿真中20次观测内逼近理想策略,比启发式方法快1%以上。
- 真实场景下50次任务后持续优化等待阈值,适应性强。
移动机器人在已知路径图上导航时,临时障碍物可能导致高代价的决策错误:长时间等待停靠车辆浪费时间,而立即绕行几秒就会移开的人也显得低效。标准反应式避障只处理局部运动,固定等待或绕行规则则忽略不同障碍物的持续时间特性。本文提出OSCAR:一种面向图结构导航中临时阻塞的自适应生存建模框架。假设遭遇时可获取障碍物类别标签,机器人从在线经验中学习类别条件下的残差清除时间分布,包含因提前绕行而未观察到清除时间的右删失数据。这些生存模型被整合进一个时变图规划器,维护障碍记忆,并在每个被阻塞边计算耐心阈值:何时应放弃等待转为备用路线。该方法在多轮任务中持续更新清除估计,平衡等待与绕行。我们在仿真和真实移动机器人(大学大厅)上评估该方法,障碍物包括人、椅子、垃圾桶和管道。仿真结果显示,学习策略在每类障碍物少于20次观测后,到达时间即收敛至拥有真实清除分布的最优策略的1%以内,优于所有启发式基线;真实部署证实策略随50次导航任务持续改进,耐心阈值根据经验动态调整。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
A mobile robot following a graph of known routes can make costly navigation errors when a temporary obstacle blocks a critical edge: waiting too long behind a parked cart wastes time, but immediately rerouting around a person who would move in a few seconds is also inefficient. Standard reactive obstacle avoidance addresses local motion around obstacles, while fixed wait-or-reroute rules ignore how long different obstacle types tend to persist. We propose OSCAR: an adaptive survival-modeling framework for graph-based navigation with temporary blockages. Assuming obstacle class labels are available at encounter time, the robot learns class-conditioned residual clearance-time distributions from online experience, including right-censored observations when it reroutes before observing clearance. These survival models are integrated into a time-dependent graph planner that maintains obstacle memory and computes a patience threshold at each blocked edge: how long to wait before taking an alternate route. The method continuously updates its clearance estimates across episodes and uses them to balance waiting against rerouting. We evaluate the approach in simulation and on a real mobile robot in a university atrium with obstacles including people, chairs, bins, and tubes. In simulation, the learned policy's time-to-goal converges to within 1% of an oracle with access to ground-truth clearance distributions after fewer than 20 observations per obstacle class, outperforming all heuristic baselines. Real-world deployment confirms that the policy improves online, adapting its patience thresholds from experience across 50 navigation episodes.
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