arXiv:2606.01289cs.LG2026-06

将特征空间映射到自回归策略,提升零样本时间序列预测泛化能力

Feature to Dynamics: Feature-space to Autoregression strategy for Zero-shot Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Feature to Dynamics: Feature-space to Autoregression strategy for Zero-shot Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 从可解释特征空间映射到自回归策略空间,分离趋势、周期与局部动态
  • 在相同预训练数据下,优于Transformer架构的零样本预测表现
  • 适合数据稀缺或源目标域差异大的场景,强调结构可迁移性

零样本时间序列预测旨在对未见过的序列进行未来值预测,要求模型能泛化到训练分布之外的时序动态。尽管近期基础模型通过大规模预训练在领域内表现强劲,但其效果常依赖广泛的数据覆盖和隐式模式记忆,在数据稀疏或源-目标域不重叠时泛化能力受限。本文提出FSA框架,一种面向受控零样本单变量预测的特征到策略方法。FSA不直接建模观测空间中的原始序列,而是学习从可解释特征空间到自回归策略空间的结构化映射。该设计引入显式归纳偏置,解耦全局趋势、周期成分与局部时序动态,使模型以更少的数据假设捕捉可迁移的时间序列结构。实验证明,在相同的预训练数据、训练协议及参数量条件下,FSA在零样本设置下优于基于Transformer的架构。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Zero-shot time series forecasting aims to predict future values for previously unseen series, requiring models to generalize temporal dynamics beyond the training distribution. While recent foundation models achieve strong in-domain performance through large-scale pretraining, their effectiveness often relies on broad data coverage and implicit pattern memorization, which can limit generalization when data are scarce or source and target domains are disjoint. In this work, we propose FSA, a feature-to-strategy framework for controlled zero-shot univariate forecasting. Instead of directly modeling raw sequences in the observation space, FSA learns a structured mapping from an interpretable feature space to an autoregressive strategy space. This design introduces explicit inductive biases that disentangle global trends, periodic components, and local temporal dynamics, enabling the model to capture transferable time-series structure with fewer data assumptions. Empirical results show that, under identical pretraining data, training protocol, and comparable parameter budgets, FSA outperforms Transformer-based architectures in our controlled zero-shot setting.

时间序列零样本自回归特征映射

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