arXiv:2606.01468stat.MLcs.AI2026-06

提出可计算感知的模型选择框架,提升神经数据建模的精度与不确定性校准。

Computation-Aware Kalman Filtering with Model Selection for Neural Dynamics

论文配图:Computation-Aware Kalman Filtering with Model Selection for Neural Dynamics
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入计算感知的状态空间模型,支持大规模状态空间下的可追踪推断
  • 在试次少、神经元多的不平衡数据下,性能媲美深度网络且不确定性更准确
  • 提供神经科学实验中模型选型的实用指南,适合资源受限的高维神经数据

由于具备明确先验和不确定性建模能力,贝叶斯方法在单细胞神经记录的动力学潜在变量建模中占据重要地位。然而,现代大规模数据集使过参数化的深度网络因其预测能力强和计算可扩展性更优而成为首选。尽管存在多种后验近似方法,但均伴随近似误差。近期研究将此类误差建模为计算不确定性,但代价是二次复杂度且假设模型超参数固定。本文进一步扩展该思路至模型选择,提出新颖的训练损失与优化方案,实现大状态空间下的可计算推断。我们构建了专为规模失衡场景设计的计算感知状态空间模型(CASSM),即试次数远小于记录神经元数的情形。在合成与真实数据上,我们的方法在性能上可媲美数据密集型深度网络,同时显著改善了先前贝叶斯方法的不确定性校准。实验为神经科学研究者提供了基于数据特征与约束选择动态潜在变量模型的路线图。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Due to their explicit priors and ability to model uncertainty, Bayesian methods have played a major role in dynamical latent variable modeling of single-cell neural recordings. However, modern-sized datasets have made overparameterized deep networks the preferred methods of choice due to their predictive power and favorable computational scaling. While many posterior approximations exist, all incur approximation errors. Recent work accounts for this error in the form of computational uncertainty but comes at the cost of quadratic complexity and assumes fixed model hyperparameters. Here we extend this development to model selection, including a novel training loss and optimization scheme, which yields tractable inference in large state-spaces. We introduce a framework, the Computation-Aware State-Space Model (CASSM), specifically designed for the scale-imbalanced regime, where the number of trials is significantly lower than the number of recorded neurons. In this regime, for both synthetic and real data, we show that our method is competitive with data-hungry deep networks, with significantly improved uncertainty calibration over previous attempts to scale Bayesian methods. Our experiments provide a roadmap to neuroscience researchers in choosing from a host of potential dynamical latent variable models given key dataset properties and constraints.

神经动力学贝叶斯建模状态空间模型不确定性校准

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