arXiv:2606.01723cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

破解连续预测中的虚假关联,提升模型在真实场景下的可靠性。

Shortcut to Nowhere: Demystifying Deep Spurious Regression

  • 通过特征与标签空间的相似性建模,识别并校正连续预测中的虚假关联。
  • 在多个真实数据集上验证,显著降低部署时因变量偏移导致的性能崩溃。
  • 适用于视觉、环境感知和大模型回归等连续预测任务,填补研究空白。

现实世界的回归任务常存在捷径:训练时某些属性与连续目标存在虚假相关,但在部署阶段发生分布偏移时不可靠;使用此类捷径进行回归可能导致测试时灾难性失败。现有研究主要关注分类任务中的虚假相关性,其标签为离散类别且组别天然可分。然而,许多现实任务需要连续预测,缺乏明确的标签边界或离散组对。本文定义深度虚假回归(Deep Spurious Regression, DSR)为从存在属性-标签混杂的回归数据中学习,解决连续虚假相关性问题,并在测试时泛化至所有属性-标签组合。基于分类与回归捷径的本质差异,提出利用虚假属性在标签空间与特征空间中的相似性,同时校准相邻目标与相关组别,以及跨属性的标签与学习特征分布。在涵盖计算机视觉、环境传感和大语言模型(LLM)回归的常见真实世界DSR数据集上进行大量实验,验证了所提策略的优越性。本工作填补了连续预测中虚假相关性研究的基准与技术空白。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

虚假相关连续预测模型鲁棒性

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