arXiv:2606.02038physics.app-phcs.LG2026-06

用图神经网络从稀疏传感器重建城市温度场,还能评估预测不确定性。

Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints

  • 基于图注意力机制的双输出模型,同时预测温度和不确定性。
  • 10-40个传感器下,均方误差比传统方法低15%-22%。
  • 适合城市热风险预警、传感器部署优化等实际场景。

从稀疏观测重建连续的日温度场对城市气候监测与热风险分析至关重要,但实际部署受限于传感器预算与间距约束。本文提出一种不确定性感知的图神经网络(GNN)框架,可在满足最小4公里间距条件下,从稀疏传感器重构日最高温度场,并生成概率性超限地图。模型采用基于图注意力的均值-残差架构,通过高斯负对数似然损失训练,同时输出温度场与空间可变的预测不确定性。传感器布置使用POD-QR策略,对比随机可行放置与最远点采样。在蒙特利尔地区(基于Daymet v4.1数据,1 km分辨率)的严格时间留出测试中(训练:2020–2023;测试:2024),10–40个传感器条件下,该框架在未观测节点上的均方误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)均优于反距离加权与普通克里金法。在低传感器数量时,布设策略影响显著,高预算下趋于饱和,约30个传感器后性能提升减弱。概率评估显示,随传感器密度增加,不确定性校准更优,且优于克里金法的锐度-校准权衡。结果表明该框架是实现不确定性感知温度场重建与决策导向热风险映射的有效工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reconstructing spatially continuous daily temperature fields from sparse observations is important for urban climate monitoring and heat-risk analysis, but practical deployments are limited by sensor budgets and spacing constraints. This study proposes an uncertainty-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for reconstructing daily maximum temperature fields from sparse sensors while supporting distance-constrained sensor placement and probabilistic exceedance mapping. The model predicts both the temperature field and a spatially varying predictive uncertainty field using a graph-attention-based mean-residual architecture trained with a Gaussian negative log-likelihood. Sensor placement is addressed using a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with QR factorization (POD-QR) strategy with a 4 km minimum inter-sensor distance constraint and is compared with random feasible placement and farthest-point sampling. The framework is evaluated over a Montreal-area polygon using Daymet v4.1 daily temperature data (1 km resolution) under a strict temporal hold-out protocol (training: 2020-2023; testing: 2024). Across sensor budgets (10-40 sensors), the proposed GNN consistently outperforms inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging in RMSE and MAE on unobserved nodes. Sensor-placement effects are most pronounced at low budgets and diminish at higher budgets, with a practical saturation regime emerging around 30 sensors under the imposed spacing constraint. Probabilistic evaluation further shows improved uncertainty calibration with increasing sensor density and a better sharpness-calibration trade-off than kriging. These results support the proposed framework as an effective tool for uncertainty-aware temperature field reconstruction and decision-oriented heat-risk mapping.

温度重建图神经网络不确定性建模城市气候

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。