提出可识别的时变因果模型,能从非平稳时间序列中分离出隐藏状态和因果关系。
Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families

- 基于指数族噪声与瞬时效应,建立马尔可夫切换模型的可识别性理论
- 在合成数据与金融数据上成功检测隐藏状态并恢复时变因果结构
- 适用于有频繁切换、非线性动态的系统,如糖尿病血糖监测或金融市场
时间系统常表现出非平稳特性,如季节性气候变化或1型糖尿病患者的血糖波动。通过离散隐状态建模非平稳性是一种有效方法,即用一系列平稳的时间段表示。这类系统可建模为马尔可夫切换模型(MSM),一种具有隐状态自回归依赖和观测变量依赖的隐马尔可夫模型。当存在频繁的状态切换、非线性非高斯动态及变量间的瞬时效应(如测量速率较慢导致)时,隐状态的识别极具挑战。本文建立了在时间状态依赖、非线性滞后与瞬时效应、以及指数族独立噪声条件下,隐状态与状态相关因果结构的可识别性理论。该理论涵盖了非时序因果模型混合情形。此外,我们提出了FlowMSM框架,可与任意平稳因果发现方法结合,用于恢复时变因果结构。在合成基准和金融经济学数据集上的实验表明,该方法能有效检测隐状态并从非平稳时间序列中发现因果结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.
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