arXiv:2606.02497cs.AI2026-06被引 1

用大模型代理解决时间序列预测的最后一步业务适配问题

Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents

论文配图:Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建大模型代理框架,整合业务上下文进行预测修正
  • 支持长周期预测与事后反思,提升可解释性与可控性
  • 适合需要人工干预的工业级预测场景

时间序列预测虽已取得显著进展,尤其在基础模型展现强大零样本外推能力后,但在实际应用中,统计上合理的基线预测通常并非最终决策依据。真正的预测需结合节假日影响、营销计划、外部事件、历史相似案例及专家反馈等弱结构化业务信息进行修订。这一‘最后一步’的预测优化在现有研究中仍被忽视。本文首次提出‘最后里程预测’问题,并设计一个基于大模型代理的框架,置于预测主干之上。系统维护统一的预测工作区,调用工具检索上下文证据,并将推理过程转化为受结构安全约束的显式修订动作。通过地图-归约式分解支持长周期预测,利用记忆库实现事后反思。实验表明,该系统能有效弥合统计预测与业务可用预测之间的鸿沟。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation. However, in real-world forecasting settings, a statistically plausible baseline is rarely the final forecast used in practice. Before a forecast becomes decision-ready, it often needs to be revised using weakly structured business context such as holiday effects, campaign plans, external events, historical analogs, and expert feedback. This practical stage remains underexplored in the forecasting literature. In this paper, we formulate this stage as the \textbf{last-mile forecasting} problem and present an LLM-agent framework that sits on top of a forecasting backbone. Our system maintains a unified forecast workspace, invokes tools to retrieve contextual evidence, and converts reasoning trajectories into explicit forecast revision actions under structural safety constraints. It also supports long-horizon forecasting through map-reduce-style decomposition and post-hoc reflection through a memory bank. The resulting system is designed to be controllable and auditable. Through real-world case studies, we show how LLM agents can bridge the gap between statistical prediction and business-ready forecasting.

时间序列大模型代理预测优化

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