arXiv:2606.02604cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

构建可审计的气候风险智能框架,解决ESG数据碎片化问题

Auditable Climate Risk Intelligence from Fragmented ESG Data: Deterministic Orchestration and Imbalance-Aware Learning for Scope 1-3 Validation

论文配图:Auditable Climate Risk Intelligence from Fragmented ESG Data: Deterministic Orchestration and Imbalance-Aware Learning for Scope 1-3 Validation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过确定性编排与时间异常检测整合多源数据
  • 在跨领域验证中实现92.3%召回率与0.91 F1值
  • 适合金融风控、可持续投资等需可追溯审计的场景

ESG与气候风险数据分散于不同范围(1-3)的报告环境,传统验证流程缺乏溯源审计能力、隐含漂移检测和可复现治理机制。本文提出一种确定性气候风险智能框架,集成单一可信源编排、时间异常检测、不平衡感知集成学习与可解释性治理,支持可审计的ESG验证。为保障开放复现,我们基于温室气体协议(GHG Protocol)、PCAF及ISSB标准,构建并发布一个合成的ESG验证基准。方法包含时间漂移分析、基于SMOTE的罕见事件优化、集成学习、溯源编排及TreeSHAP可解释性技术,用于治理审查与审计重构。评估采用分类指标(召回率、F1、ROC AUC)、校准指标(ECE、Brier分数)以及治理导向的审计轨迹完整度(可重建溯源链的标记异常占比)。结果以分层五折交叉验证的均值与标准差呈现,并进行配对显著性检验。该框架将ESG报告转向支持可复现性、可解释性与操作审计性的气候风险治理基础设施。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

ESG and climate risk data remain fragmented across heterogeneous Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 reporting environments, while conventional validation pipelines lack provenance aware auditability, hidden drift detection, and reproducibility oriented governance. This paper proposes a deterministic climate risk intelligence framework integrating single source of truth orchestration, temporal anomaly detection, imbalance aware ensemble learning, and explainability oriented governance for auditable ESG validation. To support open reproducibility, we construct and release a synthetic ESG validation benchmark calibrated against publicly reported characteristics of the GHG Protocol, PCAF, and ISSB standards. The methodology incorporates temporal drift analysis, SMOTE based rare event optimization, ensemble learning, provenance aware orchestration, and TreeSHAP based interpretability for governance inspection and audit reconstruction. We evaluate the framework against statistical classifiers, anomaly detection methods, temporal forecasting baselines, and a threshold based system using classification metrics (recall, F1, ROC AUC), calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score), and a governance oriented audit trace completeness metric measuring the fraction of flagged anomalies for which a deterministic source to escalation provenance chain can be reconstructed. Results are reported as mean and standard deviation across stratified five fold cross validation with paired significance testing. The framework reframes ESG reporting toward deterministic climate risk governance infrastructure supporting reproducibility, explainability, and operational auditability.

气候风险ESG验证可解释性审计框架

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