arXiv:2606.02610cs.CEcs.AI2026-06被引 1

用神经网络加速海洋模拟,实现高分辨率长期预测。

Samudra 2: Scaling Ocean Emulators across Resolutions

论文配图:Samudra 2: Scaling Ocean Emulators across Resolutions
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 改进U-Net结构并动态调整损失,增强对深层海洋的建模能力。
  • 在1°分辨率下温度预测相关系数提升至0.87,深层温度误差降为七分之一。
  • 首次实现1/4°高分辨率下长达8年自回归滚动模拟,适合气候研究与海平面上升预测。

海洋环流模型对气候科学至关重要,但计算成本高昂,限制了集合规模和强迫情景。神经网络模拟器可实现数量级提速,但现有模型难以兼顾高空间分辨率与多年自回归滚动。Samudra是首个能生成全球多十年滚动输出的自回归神经海洋模拟器,但仅限于1°分辨率,且存在两种长期失效模式:方差坍缩(时间变率丢失)和印记伪影(速度场泄露至深层)。本文提出Samudra 2,采用更宽的U-Net主干网络,引入改进的ConvNeXt式模块与降低的块内扩展因子,并设计动态损失函数,按预测误差重加权输出通道,强化对缓慢演化深层海洋的梯度传播。在1°分辨率下,上层海洋全球平均温度的R²从0.56提升至0.87,深层温度误差减少约七倍。同一架构可扩展至1/2°和1/4°分辨率,实现约8年自回归滚动,恢复中尺度涡旋与锋利的西边界流。单卡GPU即可运行,支持更大规模的海平面投影、海洋热吸收与气候变率研究。所有模型与数据公开可用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios. Neural emulators promise orders-of-magnitude speedups, yet existing ocean emulators have not combined fine spatial resolution with multi-year autoregressive rollouts. Samudra, the first autoregressive neural ocean emulator to produce multi-decade global rollouts, is limited to $1^\circ$ resolution and exhibits two long-horizon failure modes: \emph{variance collapse}, the loss of temporal variability, and \emph{imprinting artifacts}, in which velocity patterns leak into deep-ocean fields. We present Samudra 2, which introduces a wider U-Net backbone with modified ConvNeXt-style blocks and a reduced block-internal expansion factor, together with a dynamic loss that reweights output channels according to their prediction errors, strengthening gradients for slow-evolving deep-ocean fields. At $1^\circ$, Samudra 2 increases upper-ocean global-mean temperature $R^2$ from 0.56 to 0.87 and reduces deep-ocean temperature error by roughly sevenfold. The same architecture scales to $1/2^\circ$ and $1/4^\circ$ over approximately 8-year autoregressive rollouts, recovering mesoscale eddies and sharp western boundary currents. Running on a single GPU, Samudra 2 enables larger ensembles for sea-level projections, ocean heat uptake, and climate variability studies. All artifacts are publicly available: project page, code, checkpoints, documentation.

海洋模拟神经网络高分辨率自回归

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