arXiv:2606.02661eess.IVcs.AI2026-06中稿 · ICML被引 2

通过分频迭代优化,实现高精度且物理合理的降水短时预报。

Learning to Refine: Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting

论文配图:Learning to Refine: Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分频迭代优化:先建大尺度结构,再逐步细化高频细节。
  • 空间精度超越现有方法,频谱保真度媲美扩散模型。
  • 适合需要高分辨率、物理合理性的气象业务预报场景。

准确的降水短时预报对防灾减灾至关重要,但深度学习方法面临关键权衡:回归模型生成过度平滑、频谱衰减的预测,模糊对流细节并违背湍流幂律;扩散模型虽生成逼真结果却缺乏物理约束,产生无锚定的幻觉。本文提出谱解耦迭代精炼框架(SDIR),将预报重构为逐级频率解耦的精炼过程。首先提取稳定的低频大尺度结构,再在物理约束下迭代优化高频纹理,同时消除模糊与幻觉。其双路径设计包含:用于全局结构的尺度自适应变换器(SFG-Former)和用于细粒度残差的尺度条件傅里叶神经算子(FR-Refiner)。引入动态掩码的物理一致幂谱密度(PCPSD)损失,强制符合湍流一致性频谱分布。在三个基准数据集上的实验表明,SDIR显著优于当前最优方法的空间精度,同时频谱保真度媲美基于扩散的方法,支持可靠高分辨率业务化预报。代码链接:https://github.com/RuntimeWarning/SDIR。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is vital for disaster mitigation, but deep learning methods face a key trade-off: regression models produce over-smoothed, spectrally decaying predictions that blur convective details and violate turbulence power laws; diffusion models generate realistic yet unanchored hallucinations lacking physical grounding. We propose Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement (SDIR), a deterministic framework that reformulates nowcasting as progressive frequency-decoupled refinement. SDIR first extracts a stable low-frequency synoptic skeleton, then iteratively refines high-frequency textures under physical constraints, eliminating both blurring and hallucinations. It features a dual-path design: the Synoptic Frequency-Guided Former (SFG-Former) with Scale-Adaptive Transformers for global structure, and the Fourier Residual Refiner (FR-Refiner) with Scale-Conditioned Fourier Neural Operators for fine residuals. A Physically Consistent Power Spectral Density (PCPSD) loss with dynamic masking enforces a turbulence-consistent spectral distribution. Experiments on three benchmarks show SDIR significantly outperforms SOTA methods in spatial accuracy while achieving spectral fidelity competitive with diffusion-based methods, enabling reliable high-resolution operational nowcasting. Code link: https://github.com/RuntimeWarning/SDIR.

降水预报分频优化物理约束迭代精炼

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