混合模型结合分解技术可更精准预测风电区间,提升电网调度可靠性。
A Systematic Evaluation of Current Architectures in Wind Power Forecasting
- 用变分模态分解等方法拆分风速数据,再用LSTM/ELM分别建模上下界
- 融合分解与深度学习后,预测区间更窄且覆盖率达95%以上
- 适合风电调度、能源系统规划等需要量化不确定性的场景
区间风速预测对风电高效接入电力系统至关重要,因其能表征风资源的固有不确定性。本文系统综述了混合型风力发电区间预测方法,探讨深度学习、模态分解与统计方法的结合。通过潜在狄利克雷分配(LDA)主题建模筛选文献,发现将变分模态分解(VMD)和集合经验模态分解(EEMD)等分解技术与混合模型结合,可在不降低覆盖率的前提下缩小预测区间,提升准确性。多数研究采用双模型策略,独立预测上下界;输入数据常经EMD、EEMD或VMD分解,提取频域成分作为LSTM或ELM模型的输入。该方法可针对性建模不确定性,增强灵活性与精度。区间质量通常通过兼顾覆盖率与宽度的指标评估。研究也指出当前缺乏统一评估标准、计算复杂度高、真实场景验证不足等问题。总体强调区间预测在风电运行中的价值,并为提升模型鲁棒性与决策支持提供参考。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Interval wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it accounts for the inherent uncertainty of wind resources. This study presents a systematic literature review focused on hybrid approaches to interval forecasting of wind generation, exploring the combination of deep learning, modal decomposition, and statistical methods. To guide the paper selection, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was applied for topic modeling, enabling the identification of patterns and research trends. The findings emphasize that integrating hybrid models with decomposition techniques-such as Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)-enhances forecast accuracy and reliability by narrowing prediction intervals without compromising coverage. Regarding interval construction, most studies adopt a dual-model strategy, independently forecasting the lower and upper bounds. Input data are commonly decomposed using techniques like EMD, EEMD, or VMD, which extract frequency-based components. These components serve as inputs to models such as LSTM or ELM, trained separately for each bound. This approach allows for targeted modeling of uncertainty, improving flexibility and precision, Interval quality is typically evaluated through metrics that balance coverage and interval width. The review also highlights challenges, including the lack of standardized evaluation metrics, computational complexity, and limited real-world validation. Overall, the study reinforces the value of interval forecasting for wind energy operations and offers insights for advancing model robustness and decision-making.
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