arXiv:2606.02867cs.MAcs.AI2026-06

用大模型模拟疫情中人类行为,验证了心理因素对隔离的影响。

The Epi-LLM Framework: probing LLM behavioral priors through epidemiological agent-based models

论文配图:The Epi-LLM Framework: probing LLM behavioral priors through epidemiological agent-based models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将大模型嵌入疫情仿真社会,动态推演个体决策过程。
  • 模型显示隔离率峰值达58%-65%,与真人实验结果相近。
  • 不同模型架构影响疫情走向,适合研究行为规则与政策设计。

疫情期间人类行为影响疾病传播,但量化极为困难。本文提出Epi-LLM框架,结合基于代理的建模、真实疫情游戏数据与大语言模型(LLMs),构建一个在感染网络上动态推理和适应的合成社会。对比无干预的SEIR基准与AUIB疫情游戏的人类参与者数据,四种不同架构的LLM代理均降低了峰值活跃感染人数,隔离依从性在15天模拟第6天达到58%-65%。广义线性模型显示,感知健康严重度是隔离行为最强预测因子(β=0.33, p=0.002),伪R²达0.055,接近真人试验的0.072。模型架构显著影响疫情动态:低方差模型更适用于测试行为规则,高方差模型更贴近真实决策。仅靠地理标签无法生成文化差异行为,需显式设置态度参数。本工作为疫情准备研究提供了可扩展、无风险的仿真环境基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Human behaviour during epidemics affects infectious disease dynamics, but quantifying this remains deeply challenging. Here we introduce the Epi-LLM framework: a novel integration of agent-based modelling, real-life epigames, and large language models (LLMs) in which a synthetic society of agents reasons and adapts dynamically over an outbreak contact network. Comparing synthetic agent behaviour against a no-intervention SEIR baseline and human participant data from the AUIB epigame study, we find that LLM agents across four different architectures reduced peak active infections, with quarantine compliance peaking at 58-65% on day six of the 15-day simulation. A binomial generalised linear model showed that perceived health severity was the strongest predictor of quarantine behaviour ($β= 0.33, p = 0.002$), yielding a pseudo-$R^2$ of 0.055, comparable to the 0.072 observed in the human trial. LLM architecture is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics: low-variance architectures offer greater internal validity for testing behavioural rules, while high-variance models may better represent real-world decision-making. Geographic labels alone do not induce culturally differentiated behaviour; explicit attitudinal parameterisation is required. This proof-of-principle work lays the groundwork for deploying the Epi-LLM framework as a scalable, risk-free simulation environment for pandemic preparedness research.

大模型疫情模拟行为建模仿真

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