用Transformer模型直接预测地震波形,实现高精度时域预报。
Data-Driven Forecasting of three-Component Seismograms Using Transformer Architectures

- 基于Transformer的自回归模型,从初至波后开始递归生成未来波形。
- 在多种震源深度与距离下,中位归一化互相关达0.93以上。
- 适合地震预警、灾害减缓及引力波观测等物理时序预测场景。
由于地震波传播具有非线性、频散性和多尺度特性,超出观测数据的地震波形预测仍具挑战。本文提出 extsc{SeismoGPT},一种基于Transformer的自回归模型,可直接在时域内预测三通道地震波形。模型以初至波到达时刻为起点,接收包含P波到S波之后一定时间的波形上下文,随后无真实样本依赖地递归生成未来运动。评估使用合成地震图,覆盖震源深度5–100公里、震中距10–90°、震级3 ≤ M_w ≤ 7。通过距离归一化的上下文比和固定预测时长120与240秒定义三种评估配置。所有配置下中位归一化互相关均不低于0.93。代表性预测显示,成功结果保持相位一致性和谱能分布;失败主要源于自回归推演中的相位漂移,而非生成非物理解。结果表明,基于Transformer的序列模型可学习稳定的地震波场动态延续,凸显基础模型在物理驱动时间序列预测中的潜力。该方法对下一代引力波观测台(如爱因斯坦望远镜)的地震预警与减灾应用具有重要意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce \textsc{SeismoGPT}, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90$^\circ$, and magnitudes $3 \leq M_w \leq 7$. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves a median normalized cross correlation of 0.93 or higher. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.
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