用重要性压缩和反馈引导检索,提升新闻驱动的时间序列预测精度与效率。
From Long News to Accurate Forecast: Importance-Aware Fusion and PRM-Guided Reflection for Time Series Forecasting

- 基于重要性奖励模型动态压缩新闻,保留在固定上下文内的关键信息。
- 引入过程奖励模型按误差特征筛选补充新闻,减少冗余迭代,收敛更快。
- 适用于金融、能源等多领域预测,尤其擅长处理长篇新闻输入。
将新闻融入时间序列预测具有吸引力,因其能揭示历史数据无法捕捉的突发外部事件。然而现有基于大语言模型的新闻-预测流程存在两大局限:相关新闻常超出模型上下文窗口,且补充新闻的迭代检索通常缺乏指导,导致重复更新与收敛缓慢。为此,本文提出新框架,结合重要性感知新闻压缩与过程级检索监督。首先训练重要性奖励模型,评估每篇新闻对预测的贡献,并据此在序列成对融合中分配压缩预算,确保在固定上下文限制内保留关键内容。其次引入过程奖励模型(PRM),根据当前误差分布和已选新闻历史,对多个候选补充新闻进行排序,取代一次性盲检,实现质量可控的精准选择。两项组件均基于历史数据离线训练,推理时使用冻结的过滤逻辑与压缩模块,无需反射循环。在金融、能源、交通及比特币预测基准上的实验表明,该方法显著优于强基线,预测精度更高,迭代次数大幅减少,且在相关文章达数千词时仍保持有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Incorporating news into time series forecasting is appealing because news can reveal abrupt exogenous events that historical values alone cannot recover. However, existing LLM-based news-forecasting pipelines face two practical limitations: relevant news articles often exceed the model's context window, and iterative retrieval of supplementary news is typically unguided, leading to redundant updates and slow convergence. We address these issues with a novel framework that combines importance-aware news compression and process-level retrieval supervision. First, we train an importance reward model that estimates the forecasting utility of each article and uses this signal to allocate compression budgets during sequential pairwise fusion, preserving informative content within a fixed context limit. Second, we introduce a process reward model (PRM) that ranks multiple supplementary-news candidates conditioned on the current error profile and the history of previously selected articles, replacing one-shot blind retrieval with quality-controlled selection. Both components are trained offline using historical data with ground truth; inference uses the frozen filtering logic and compression modules without any reflection loop. Experiments on finance, energy, traffic, and bitcoin forecasting benchmarks show that our method improves prediction accuracy over strong baselines, significantly reduces the number of refinement iterations compared to the iterative baseline, and remains effective when relevant articles span thousands of tokens.
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