arXiv:2606.03121cs.LG2026-06KDD

TiWeaver自适应建模多变量时间序列的异步动态,提升预测精度。

TiWeaver: Unified Temporal Dynamics Modeling via Contextual Patching

论文配图:TiWeaver: Unified Temporal Dynamics Modeling via Contextual Patching
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过上下文感知分块,动态划分时间序列片段
  • 在12个真实数据集上最高提升25%预测性能
  • 适合处理缺失值和采样不均的复杂时序数据

多变量时间序列预测在天气预报、股票分析和健康监测等实际应用中至关重要。由于数据来源多样,时间序列呈现多样的时序动态,常伴随缺失值和非均匀采样频率等不规则性,导致跨通道的复杂异步依赖关系。因此,固定分块策略的单一模型难以适应多种时间序列,影响预测准确性。本文提出TiWeaver,一个统一框架,可自适应处理时序动态与细粒度跨通道依赖。具体地,引入图引导自适应分词器(G$^2$AT),结合时间密度与表征一致性,将时间序列划分为高上下文一致性片段;同时设计细粒度异步依赖提取器(FADE),在建模细粒度异步依赖的同时融合长期历史依赖。我们在12个真实世界时间序列数据集上评估了TiWeaver,结果表明其性能达到当前最优,相较现有方法最高提升25%。实验验证了其在不同领域与数据特性下的鲁棒性与有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a critical role in real-world applications, including weather prediction, stock analysis, and health monitoring. Due to the diversity of data sources, time series exhibit diverse temporal dynamics, often accompanied by various irregularities such as missing values and non-uniform sampling frequencies. Such irregularities lead to complex and asynchronous temporal dependencies across channels. Thus, a single model with a fixed patching scheme often fails to adapt well to diverse multivariate time series, hindering accurate forecasting. In this paper, we propose TiWeaver, a unified framework designed to handle temporal dynamics and fine-grained inter-channel dependencies adaptively. Specifically, we introduce a Graph-Guided Adaptive Tokenizer (G$^2$AT) that divides time series into high contextually coherent patches by jointly considering temporal density and representation consistency. In addition, we propose a Fine-grained Asynchronous Dependency Extractor (FADE), which is designed to model fine-grained asynchronous inter-channel dependencies while incorporating long-term historical dependencies. We evaluate TiWeaver on 12 real-world time series datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods up to 25%. These results demonstrate its robustness and effectiveness across diverse domains and data characteristics.

时间序列自适应建模异步依赖多变量预测

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