arXiv:2606.03245stat.MLcs.LG2026-06被引 1

统一分类与回归的校准理论,揭示其内在层级关系。

Hierarchies of Calibration: Classification meets Regression

  • 构建分类与回归校准概念的层级体系。
  • 提出名义变量的模态校准,区分全/部分/平均校准。
  • 证明双概率积分变换校准独立于传统离散校准概念。

校准概念形式化了概率预测与实际结果之间的兼容性:结果应无法与预测分布中的随机抽样相区分。本文系统回顾、拓展并连接了分类与回归任务中提出的各类校准概念。重点分析这些概念在实值数据、连续结果、计数数据、名义类别及二元结果中的层级关系。我们引入名义结果的模态校准,区分全、部分与平均校准,并证明双概率积分变换(double PIT)校准在逻辑上独立于现有离散结果校准概念。此外,我们推广了基于预测分布性质(如均值、分位数或事件概率)的校准结论。全文通过具体示例阐明概念及其层级关系,并提供算法工具以生成教学性实例与反例。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Concepts of calibration formalize the compatibility between probabilistic predictions and the respective outcomes. In a nutshell, the outcomes ought to be indistinguishable from random draws from the predictive distributions. In this paper, we review, extend, and bridge notions of calibration that have been proposed for classification and regression tasks. Particular emphasis is given to hierarchical relations between the various notions, as they apply to general real-valued data, continuous outcomes, count data, nominal classes, and binary outcomes. To highlight a number of contributions, we introduce the notion of modal calibration for nominal outcomes, we distinguish full, partial, and average calibration in this setting, and we show that double probability integral transform (PIT) calibration is logically independent of previously proposed concepts of calibration for discrete outcomes. Furthermore, we generalize extant results on concepts of calibration that are expressed in terms of properties or functionals of the predictive distributions, such as means, quantiles, or event probabilities. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concepts and their hierarchical relations in worked examples, and we provide algorithmic tools that support the construction of instructive examples and counterexamples.

校准概率预测统计推断分类回归

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