arXiv:2606.03321cs.LGcs.MA2026-06

用多智能体机制动态更新核反应堆仿真模型,提升实时预测准确性。

Validation-Gated Multi-Agent Governance for Online Adaptation of Thermal-Hydraulic Surrogate Models under Operating-Regime Shift

论文配图:Validation-Gated Multi-Agent Governance for Online Adaptation of Thermal-Hydraulic Surrogate Models under Operating-Regime Shift
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分角色智能体协同诊断误差、筛选模型并审批更新
  • 动态适应模式将平均误差降至5.72,警告超标率35.8%
  • 可审计的模型迭代过程适合高安全要求工业场景

人工智能代理可支持秒级热工水力预测,但离线选定并冻结的模型在部署后可能因运行工况变化而失效。本研究提出一种受控持续自适应框架,用于实验性热工水力环路数据,其中角色分离的智能体(监测、诊断、适应、安全审计、调度)共同诊断误差特征,优先候选模型族,并审查模型替换;确定性冠军-挑战者门控与后台影子学习保留最终决策权。通过分块三重交叉验证筛选七类代理模型,选定时序傅里叶神经算子作为初始冠军,用于60秒历史到10秒轨迹的预测,每种自适应模式下使用三个种子。静态部署的通道平均绝对误差(MAE)为7.06,警告超标率为56.8%;规则自适应将MAE降至6.54,而仅影子刷新仍接近静态水平。在全流程多智能体评审模式(MA-Full)下,平均误差最低达5.72,超标率35.8%,相较静态提升19.0%。配对自助区间排除零值,但各自适应模式间区间重叠,六组实验限制泛化统计推断。从神经算子到Transformer和图神经网络的经验证晋升表明,记录可控的自适应机制可支撑可审计的代理演化,同时确定性门控保持部署主导权。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Artificial-intelligence surrogates can support second-by-second thermal-hydraulic forecasting, but models selected and frozen offline may become condition-locked once deployed outside their pretraining envelope. This study develops a guarded continual-adaptation framework for experimental thermal-hydraulic loop data in which role-separated agents - Monitor, Diagnosis, Adaptation, Safety-Auditor, and Orchestrator - diagnose error signatures, prioritize candidate model families, and review promotions, while deterministic champion-challenger gates and background shadow learning retain final authority over model replacement. Seven surrogate families were screened by blocked three-fold cross-validation, and a temporal Fourier neural operator was selected as the initial champion for 60-s-history-to-10-s-trajectory forecasting on two held-out transients, with three seeds per adaptive mode. Static deployment gave a channel-averaged MAE of 7.06 and a 56.8% warning-exceedance ratio; rule-based adaptation reduced MAE to 6.54, whereas shadow refresh alone remained close to Static. The MA-Full mode, in which the role-separated multi-agent council reviews every evaluated stream step, achieved the lowest mean error, 5.72, and 35.8% exceedance, corresponding to a 19.0% improvement over Static. Paired bootstrap intervals against Static excluded zero, although intervals among adaptive modes overlapped and the six paired units limit broad statistical claims. Validated promotions from the neural operator to Transformer and graph neural network indicate that logged, gate-controlled adaptation can support auditable surrogate evolution while deterministic gates retain deployment authority.

多智能体模型自适应热工水力可审计

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