arXiv:2606.03602cs.LGcs.AI2026-06被引 1

用可信度评估让大模型辅助因果发现,避免错误并提升准确率。

CauTion: Knowing When to Trust LLMs for Ensemble Causal Discovery

论文配图:CauTion: Knowing When to Trust LLMs for Ensemble Causal Discovery
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过共识投票和可靠性校准,筛选可信的模型判断结果。
  • 在六大数据集上优于基线,大图上优势更明显,抗大模型错误能力强。
  • 适合需要高可靠因果推断的研究者,尤其关注模型信任问题的场景。

从观测数据中进行因果发现仍面临纯统计方法的局限性,如等价类内难以区分、对小样本敏感等问题。尽管大语言模型(LLMs)可提供领域知识补充统计推断,但现有方法易受大模型错误影响且消耗大量令牌。此外,依赖单一数据驱动算法会导致结果受算法偏差影响。为此,我们提出 CauTion 框架,通过共识过滤与大模型可靠性估计,将领域知识可靠地融入多个统计因果发现算法的集成中。该框架分三步:首先,算法集成利用共识投票解决96%的算法一致边,过滤后边的准确率接近完美;其次,通过无标注的可信度校准程序估计大模型与算法的相对可靠性,进而实施信任加权投票,仅在算法证据不可靠时启用大模型仲裁;最后,应用环路修复步骤确保最终因果图无环。在六个数据集上的实验表明,CauTion 始终优于纯数据驱动及大模型增强基线,在更大图上收益更显著,并对大模型错误具有强鲁棒性。代码已开源:https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauTion。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal discovery from observational data remains challenging due to the fundamental limitations of purely statistical methods, such as statistical distinguishability within equivalence classes and sensitivity to finite sample sizes. While large language models (LLMs) offer a promising source of domain knowledge to complement statistical inference, existing LLM-augmented methods are vulnerable to LLM errors and incur high token costs. Moreover, reliance on a single data-centric algorithm can make results sensitive to algorithm-specific biases. To address these limitations, we propose CauTion, a framework that reliably integrates LLM domain knowledge into an ensemble of statistical causal discovery algorithms through consensus filtering and LLM reliability estimation. CauTion proceeds in three stages. First, an algorithm ensemble utilizes a consensus voting to resolve up to 96% of edges on which algorithms agree, achieving near-perfect accuracy on the filtered consensus edges. Second, a trust-calibrated arbitration mechanism estimates the relative reliability of the LLM and the algorithms via an annotation-free trust calibration procedure, which is then utilized to govern a trust-weighted voting process that restricts LLM arbitration exclusively to edges with unreliable algorithmic evidence. Third, a cycle repair step is applied to guarantee the final causal graph is validly acyclic. Experiments on six datasets demonstrate that CauTion consistently outperforms both data-centric and LLM-augmented baselines, with larger gains on larger graphs and strong robustness to LLM errors. Code is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauTion.

因果发现大模型集成学习可信推理

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