用表格基础模型无训练实现生存分析,自动处理删失数据
Staying Alive: Uncensored Survival Analysis with Tabular Foundation Models
- 用基础模型构建AFT模型,仅需调一个标量参数
- 通过迭代补全删失数据,性能媲美需训练的主流方法
- 适合医疗、用户流失等时间事件预测场景
生存分析(SA)是一种建模事件发生时间的统计框架,广泛应用于医疗和用户流失预测等领域。其核心挑战在于事件时间常为部分观测或右删失。近年来,表格基础模型(TFM)因其单次前向传播即可完成预测、无需特定数据集参数调整而备受关注。然而,现有方法在处理带删失的时间-事件数据时仍存在困难。本文提出一种无需训练的生存回归方法:利用TFM同时预测事件时间和迭代补全右删失数据。该方法基于加速失效时间(AFT)模型,仅需拟合单一标量参数;进一步结合Buckley-James估计器,引入非参数上下文内估计器处理删失数据。在标准生存分析基准上的实验表明,本方法性能可与需训练的多种参数及半参数模型(如Cox回归、参数化AFT模型)相媲美。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs. Widely used in several domains, including healthcare and churn prediction, a central challenge in its applicability stems from the time of the event being partially observed or \emph{right-censoring}. Tabular Foundation Models (TFM) have attracted significant interest in recent years due to their ability to perform prediction tasks in a single forward pass, requiring no dataset-specific parameter fitting. Despite their success, their application to prediction tasks on time-to-event data remains difficult due to right censoring. In this work, we present a training-free method to survival regression by leveraging TFMs to both predict the time of the event and iteratively impute right-censored data. Our method uses a TFM to construct an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model requiring no training beyond fitting a single scalar parameter. Subsequently, by building on the Buckley-James estimator, we introduce a non-parametric in-context estimator for right-censored data. Our experiments on standard survival analysis benchmarks show that our method is competitive with several parametric and semi-parametric survival regression models that require training, including Cox regression and parametric AFT models.
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