arXiv:2606.03704cs.AIcs.CE2026-06

动态选择金融决策目标,避免盲目切换,提升稳定性和安全性。

Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making

论文配图:Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于近期收益统计自动选最优决策目标,无需隐变量
  • 通过置信度和安全门控减少错误选择与频繁切换
  • 用大模型做审核而非生成,确保决策合规可靠

股票推荐与组合配置等金融决策通常依赖对未来收益与风险的估计,并据此选择交易或资产分配。然而,市场环境随时间变化,固定目标可能在不同阶段表现不佳;而依赖潜在状态估计的切换机制又常存在噪声或延迟,频繁切换会增加换手率与运营不稳。本文提出 DOSS(Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards),一种基于学习的目标选择器,直接从近期收益的可解释统计量中,从有限候选目标(如收益追求、损失厌恶、风险调整)中选出当前最优目标,无需引入中间状态变量。DOSS 将目标选择建模为分类问题,采用滚动窗口进行序列更新,实现前瞻预测且无时间泄漏,同时输出每个提案的置信度。为防止误选和过度切换,引入置信度感知的门控机制,低置信度提案将被强制转为保守默认值,并施加切换频率控制。进一步地,引入大语言模型(LLM)作为治理组件:仅允许其接受提议目标或将其覆盖为预设安全默认值,通过确定性规则在必要时触发覆盖。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial decision-making tasks such as stock recommendation and portfolio allocation typically estimate future return and risk and then select trades or allocations for an investor, and the chosen optimization objective often determines realized performance. However, because market conditions evolve over time, a fixed objective can be suboptimal across regimes, while regime-switching pipelines that rely on latent regime estimates can be noisy or delayed and frequent switching can increase turnover and operational instability. In this paper, we propose DOSS (Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards), a learning-based selector that directly chooses the decision-relevant objective function at each time point from interpretable statistical summaries of recent returns, selecting among a small set of candidates (e.g., return-seeking, loss-averse, and risk-adjusted) without introducing intermediate regime variables. DOSS formulates objective selection as a classification problem over objectives and performs sequential updates with a rolling window to make forward-looking selections without temporal leakage, while also outputting a confidence score for each proposal. To mitigate misselection and excessive switching in deployment, DOSS applies confidence-aware gating with a fail-safe that overrides low-confidence proposals to a conservative default and enforces explicit controls tied to switching frequency. We further integrate governance by positioning a Large Language Model (LLM) as an oversight component rather than a generator of new objectives: the LLM is restricted to accept a proposed objective or override it to a predefined safe default, with deterministic rule-based constraints triggering overrides when needed.

金融决策动态选择LLM治理

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