arXiv:2606.04135cs.LG2026-06KDD被引 1

针对非平稳时间序列,用智能检索提升预测准确性和鲁棒性

Stationarity-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Stationarity-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过时序相似性+动态多样性筛选历史片段
  • 在8个真实数据集上平均精度提升,非平稳场景效果更优
  • 适合处理含突变、周期变化的工业/金融时间序列

时间序列预测依赖历史模式,但现实数据常存在非平稳性和状态切换,挑战全参数化模型。受检索增强生成(RAG)启发,现有方法在推理时检索相关历史段落作为外部证据。然而由于现实序列固有的非平稳性,高度相似的历史段落未必预示相似未来,仅依赖相似性的检索易产生冗余且脆弱。我们提出站位感知的检索增强时间序列预测框架(SARAF),自适应平衡检索的相关性与多样性。SARAF首先通过时序相似性并结合时序对齐增强形成候选池,再采用多样性感知选择策略覆盖多样的历史状态,且多样性强度由数据集整体站位性自动调节。此外,SARAF使用站位感知聚合方式融合检索到的未来预测。在八个真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,SARAF在性能上达到竞争力,并在平均精度和鲁棒性上优于强基线,在具有挑战性的非平稳环境下表现尤为突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting relies on historical patterns, but real-world series often exhibit non-stationarity and regime shifts that challenge fully parametric forecasters. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), recent work augments forecasters by retrieving relevant historical segments and using them as external evidence at inference time. However, due to the intrinsic non-stationarity of real-world time series, a highly similar past segment does not necessarily imply a similar future, rendering similarity-only retrieval brittle and prone to redundancy. We propose Stationarity-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting (SARAF), a framework that adaptively balances relevance and diversity in retrieval. SARAF first forms a candidate pool via temporal similarity with time-aligned enhancement, then applies a diversity-aware selection strategy to cover heterogeneous historical regimes, with the diversification strength automatically modulated by dataset-level stationarity. Moreover, SARAF uses stationarity-aware aggregation to fuse the retrieved futures. Extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets show that SARAF achieves competitive forecasting performance and improves average accuracy and robustness over strong baselines, with particularly clear benefits under challenging non-stationary settings. Code: https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/SARAF.

时间序列检索增强非平稳性预测

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