无需假设分布,用预测集实现安全控制的鲁棒方法
Distribution-Free Risk-Aware Planning and Control Under Uncertainty Using Conformal Spectral Risk Control

- 用无分布假设的预测集替代传统概率模型
- 在障碍物避让中实现更低风险与更快求解
- 适合对安全性要求高的自动驾驶场景
在动态不确定环境中进行安全导航通常依赖对真实不确定性分布的准确估计或假设。然而,由于数据有限或信息不全,准确刻画真实不确定性分布往往困难。对不确定性的错误理解及其相关风险可能导致即使在高度风险规避下仍做出危险决策。为此,我们提出一种风险感知模型预测控制(RA-MPC)框架,通过引入预测集,在无需假设底层不确定性分布的前提下,保证风险控制低于用户指定阈值。为生成预测集,我们开发了一种无分布的风险量化框架,将符合性风险控制(CRC)扩展至通用谱风险度量。我们证明,将预测集纳入MPC框架后,即便存在不确定性建模误差,也能在谱风险约束满足方面提供统计安全保障。我们在模拟车辆避障场景中验证了该框架,结果表明其在安全性提升的同时,求解时间显著减少,优于基线的RA-MPC框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Safe navigation in dynamic and uncertain environments often relies on accurate estimation of, or assumptions about, the true underlying uncertainty. However, accurately characterizing the true uncertainty distribution is often difficult due to limited data or imperfect information. An incorrect understanding of the uncertainty and its associated risk may lead to dangerous decisions even under high levels of risk aversion. To address this issue, we propose a risk-aware model predictive control (RA-MPC) framework that incorporates prediction sets to guarantee risk control below a user-specified threshold without requiring assumptions about the underlying uncertainty distribution. To generate the prediction sets, we develop a distribution-free risk quantification framework that extends conformal risk control (CRC) to general spectral risk measures. We then show that incorporating the prediction sets into the MPC framework provides statistical safety guarantees in terms of spectral risk constraint satisfaction even under uncertainty misspecification. We validate the proposed framework in simulated vehicle obstacle avoidance scenarios, demonstrating improved safety and reduced solve time compared to a baseline RA-MPC framework.
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