arXiv:2606.04380stat.MLcs.LG2026-06

通过优化辅助测量对最终预测的影响,提升时间序列协同预测的准确性。

REGAIN: REconciliation GAIN-driven Auxiliary Direction Learning

论文配图:REGAIN: REconciliation GAIN-driven Auxiliary Direction Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 学习归一化辅助方向,以增强预测一致性
  • 在真实数据上实现多变量与分层预测的显著改进
  • 适合关注预测系统优化与不确定性建模的研究者

传统预测协同从固定测量体系出发,探讨如何将预测投影到一致空间。本文提出新问题:应预测并加入哪些额外线性测量?我们设计REGAIN框架,学习归一化的辅助方向,用冻结的预测模型预测生成序列,并通过增广广义最小二乘协同后的目标加权损失减少来选择方向。相比基于方差或可预测性的辅助选择,REGAIN直接优化辅助测量对最终协同预测的下游影响。统计分析表明,有效辅助方向必须提供关于未解目标不确定性的互补信息,而非仅易于预测。该研究揭示了协方差风险降低机制、偏差变化对实际二次风险的作用,以及估计增益信号的稳定性。提出一种分阶段学习算法,包含保留样本增益筛选,外加可选联合精炼步骤。在北京PM2.5和澳大利亚旅游数据上的实验表明,增益选定的测量能显著提升普通多变量及分层预测效果,尤其在揭示原测量系统未捕捉的残余不确定性时表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecast reconciliation usually starts from a fixed measurement system and asks how forecasts should be projected onto a coherent space. We ask a different question: which additional linear measurements should be forecast and included in the reconciliation system? We propose REGAIN, a reconciliation-gain framework that learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts the induced series with a frozen forecasting oracle, and selects directions by their target-weighted loss reduction after augmented generalized least-squares reconciliation. Unlike variance-based components or predictability-based auxiliary selection, REGAIN optimizes the downstream effect of an auxiliary measurement on the final reconciled forecasts. We provide a statistical characterization showing that useful auxiliary directions must provide complementary information about unresolved target uncertainty, rather than merely being easy to forecast. The analysis also clarifies the covariance-risk reduction mechanism, the role of bias changes in realized quadratic risk, and the stability of estimated gain signals. A stagewise learning algorithm with held-out gain screening is developed, together with an optional joint refinement step. Experiments on Beijing PM2.5 and Australian Tourism data show that gain-selected measurements can improve both ordinary multivariate and hierarchical forecasts, especially when they reveal residual uncertainty not captured by the original measurement system.

预测协同辅助测量时间序列不确定性建模

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