用可学习的张量压缩恢复精确推理结构,提升图模型推断精度与稳定性。
In-Context Graphical Inference

- 基于变量消去思想设计自回归图变换器,用张量训练压缩中间因子
- 在500节点费米自旋玻璃上MAE降至0.048,远超发散的信念传播方法
- 支持分布无关校准覆盖,适合复杂拓扑下需可靠置信度的场景
离散图模型中的边缘推断面临精确性与可扩展性的权衡:精确算法对高树宽图不可行,而迭代近似方法(如信念传播、变分法)在存在冲突拓扑时失去收敛保证。本文认为这一矛盾源于归纳偏置不匹配——迭代方法放弃了使精确推断成立的顺序消去结构。为此提出上下文图推断(ICG-I),一种自回归图变压器,通过学习并压缩的张量训练中间因子模拟变量消去过程,并结合狄利克雷输出层与加权共形预测,实现拓扑变化下的校准、无分布覆盖保证。理论证明张量训练压缩误差沿自回归链线性传播,狄利克雷-多项式损失为合理评分规则,且加权共形预测在密度比估计误差下仍保持可量化覆盖衰减。大量实验验证其性能达当前最优,在标准实例上将平均绝对误差从0.041降至0.020,在N=500的费米自旋玻璃上达到0.048,而信念传播完全发散。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Marginal inference in discrete graphical models forces a choice between exactness and scalability: exact algorithms are intractable for high-treewidth graphs, while iterative approximations (Belief Propagation, variational methods) sacrifice convergence guarantees on frustrated topologies. We argue that this dichotomy stems from a mismatched inductive bias: iterative methods abandon the sequential elimination structure that makes exact inference correct. We introduce In-Context Graphical Inference (ICG-I), an autoregressive Graph Transformer that restores this structure by mimicking Variable Elimination with learned, Tensor- Train-compressed intermediate factors, paired with a Dirichlet output layer and Weighted Conformal Prediction for calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees under topological shift. We prove that TT compression errors propagate at most lincarly through the autoregressive chain, that the Dirichlet-Multinomial loss is a proper scoring rule, and that WCP maintains coverage with a quantifiable degradation under estimated density ratios. We conducted intensive experiments to evaluate ICG-I and achieved state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks. ICG-I reduces MAE from 0.041 (best baseline) to 0.020 on standard instances and achieves 0.048 on N=500 frustrated spin glasses where BP diverges entirely.
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