构建首个全国铁路延误预测数据集与评测基准,推动该领域标准化发展。
RIDE: An Open Dataset and Benchmark for Train Delay Prediction

- 基于比利时全国铁路网络构建多源数据管道,覆盖超9400万列车事件
- 首次系统对比非学习、统计与深度学习模型,图神经网络表现最优
- 提供分时段、分延迟变化的细粒度评估,支持模型横向比较
列车延误预测对乘客和铁路运营方均至关重要,但因缺乏标准化数据集、预测目标与评估协议,研究进展难以衡量。为此,我们推出了RIDE——一个基于比利时全国铁路网络构建的开放数据集与评测基准。RIDE涵盖2023至2025年间9450万列车事件、360万旅程记录及3570万条气象数据。数据以分层流水线形式组织,包含可复用的中间关系型数据集与面向模型训练的基准数据集。评测框架统一了预测任务定义、训练测试划分及评估协议,支持模型间直接比较。在此基础上,我们首次实现对非学习、统计学习与深度学习模型的全面对比。结果表明,学习类方法显著优于非学习模型,其中图神经网络在平均性能上最优,而最强学习模型间差距较小。除均值绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)外,框架还提供按预测时长与延迟变化的细分指标,支持对模型行为的精细化分析。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.
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