用AI代理动态找证据,让出行预测更准更透明。
Towards Efficient and Evidence-grounded Mobility Prediction with LLM-Driven Agent

- 不训练模型,用大模型自适应调用历史轨迹等证据
- 在三个数据集上最高达71.42%准确率,模糊情况提升18个百分点
- 适合需要可解释预测的交通规划与城市模拟场景
个体出行预测对城市仿真、交通规划和政策分析至关重要。监督序列模型虽精度高,但需特定训练且决策过程不透明。现有基于大模型的方法改善了可解释性,但多依赖静态提示和单次推理,当出行信号弱或冲突时难以获取额外证据。本文提出 extit{AgentMob},一种无需训练的大模型驱动代理框架,将下个位置预测转化为自适应证据控制的决策过程。常规情况通过历史规律快速判断,模糊情况则迭代调用近期轨迹、历史行为、停留-移动概率及地理信息等工具。在三个出行数据集上, extit{AgentMob} 在无训练大模型方法中表现最佳,其中 GPT-5.4 在 BW 数据集上达到 71.42% 的 Acc@1,YJMob100K 为 33.14%,Shanghai ISP 为 33.50%。在 BW 非快速路径样本中,大模型控制器将准确率从 30.65% 提升至 48.62%,显著优于同工具统计基线,证明其核心优势在于通过自适应证据收集解决模糊预测问题。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Individual-level mobility prediction is central to urban simulation, transportation planning, and policy analysis. Supervised sequence models achieve strong accuracy but require task-specific training and offer limited decision-level transparency. Recent LLM-based methods improve interpretability, yet mostly rely on static prompts and single-pass inference, limiting their ability to seek additional evidence when mobility signals are weak or conflicting. We propose \method{}, a training-free LLM-driven agent framework that formulates next-location prediction as adaptive evidence-controlled decision making. \method{} resolves routine cases through a fast path based on historical regularity, while ambiguous cases trigger iterative tool use over recent trajectories, historical behavior, stay-move likelihood, and geographical evidence. Across three mobility datasets, AgentMob achieves the strongest overall performance among training-free LLM-based methods, with GPT-5.4 reaching 71.42\% Acc@1 on BW, 33.14\% on YJMob100K, and 33.50\% on Shanghai ISP. On BW non-fast-path cases, the LLM controller improves Acc@1 from 30.65\% to 48.62\% over a same-tool statistical baseline, showing that its main benefit lies in resolving ambiguous predictions through adaptive evidence gathering. Our code is available at https://github.com/Unknown-zoo/AgentMob.
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