arXiv:2606.05258stat.MLcs.LG2026-06

针对医院数据异质性,提出分簇迁移学习方法提升精神风险预测精度。

Harnessing Source Heterogeneity for Cluster-Structured Transfer Learning

论文配图:Harnessing Source Heterogeneity for Cluster-Structured Transfer Learning
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于系数距离识别医院数据的潜在聚类结构。
  • 在27家医院63万患者数据上,显著提升个体医院预测效果。
  • 适合医疗数据异质性强、需个性化建模的场景。

当目标群体数据有限但存在多个相关辅助源时,迁移学习是自然选择。核心挑战在于源异质性:辅助源的有用性可能呈现分簇式差异。现有方法多将源划分为有用/无用二元判断,忽略子群体间的迁移能力差异。基于康涅狄格州医院信息管理交换(CHIME)数据(27家医院,636,758名患者)开展自杀风险研究,我们提出Trans-GLMC,一种适用于广义线性模型的分簇迁移学习方法。该场景下,单家医院自杀事件稀少导致风险模型不稳定,而盲目合并则会掩盖机构间患者构成与风险特征的差异。Trans-GLMC首先通过系数距离构建源间相似性,识别潜在聚类;再结合全局融合、簇内精炼与目标去偏,生成自适应检测结构的估计器。非渐近误差界表明,只要存在有意义的目标簇,其性能即优于无分簇版本,否则误差阶与无分簇情形一致。模拟与真实数据分析均显示,Trans-GLMC提升了机构级预测表现,识别出具有可迁移性的医院共现社区,并恢复出临床合理的自杀风险因子。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Transfer learning is a natural strategy when a target population has limited data but multiple related auxiliary sources are available. A central difficulty is source heterogeneity: auxiliary sources may not be equally useful, and their usefulness may vary in a structured, cluster-like fashion. Existing transfer-learning methods often reduce source selection to a binary informative/non-informative decision, overlooking subgroups of sources with differential transferability. Motivated by a suicide-risk study using data from the Connecticut Hospital Information Management Exchange (CHIME), comprising 636,758 patients across 27 hospitals, we propose Trans-GLMC, a cluster-structured transfer-learning procedure for generalized linear models. The CHIME setting illustrates the core challenge: hospital-specific risk models are unstable because suicide attempts are rare at any single facility, whereas indiscriminate pooling across hospitals can obscure facility-level differences in patient mix and risk profiles. Trans-GLMC first constructs a coefficient-based distance among the target and candidate sources to recover latent source clusters. It then combines global fusion, within-cluster refinement, and target debiasing to produce an estimator that adapts to the detected structure. We establish a non-asymptotic error bound that improves over its unclustered counterpart whenever a meaningful target cluster exists and matches the unclustered rate up to constants otherwise. In simulations and in the CHIME study, Trans-GLMC improves facility-specific prediction, identifies interpretable communities of hospitals with mutual transferability, and recovers clinically coherent suicide-risk factors.

迁移学习医疗数据分簇分析

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